MLB Rookie of the Year Odds: Carter Jensen and Moises Ballesteros Offers Tremendous Dark Horse Value

We're three weeks into the 2026 MLB season, and while now is a good time to take a step back and evaluate where teams and players stand, it's also important not to overreact to a small sample size.

No awards race is more evident of this than the race for Rookie of the Year. There's no question that there have been a few rookies, most notably Chase DeLauter, Kevin McGonigle, and Sal Stewart, who have been off to red-hot starts, but young players are always going to be a bit streaky, and there's a good chance the top rookie performers so far will start to cool off as the season progresses.

That's why now is the time to buy in on a couple of rookies who are a bit further down the odds list. The players I'm looking at are Carter Jensen of the Kansas City Royals and Moises Ballesteros of the Chicago Cubs.

All odds in this article are via FanDuel Sportsbook

MLB Rookie of the Year Odds

American League Rookie of the Year Odds

Chase DeLauter +250
Kevin McGonigle +250
Munetaka Murakami +420
Carter Jensen +1100
Parker Messick +1100
Connelly Early +1600
Kazuma Okamoto +2500
Samuel Basallo +2500
Colt Emerson +4500
Noah Schultz +4500
Sam Antonacci +4500
Trey Yesavage +5000
Carson Williams +5000
Dylan Beavers +5000

DeLauter, McGonigle, and Munetaka Murakami have been a step above the rest when it comes to rookie performance in the American League, but I think there's value in Jensen, the next name on the list at 11-1. He has taken over a role as an everyday starter at catcher or designated hitter, and he's lived up to expectations thus far.

He has racked up four home runs and 10 RBIs for an OPS of .726. He still needs to work on making consistent contact, sporting a batting average of just .216, but I expect that will come with continued reps as the season progresses. Not only does he have significant power, but he also puts in important defensive reps when he's asked to sub in for Salvador Perez at catcher.

He's the best bet on the board right now at 11-1.

National League Rookie of the Year Odds

Sal Stewart +160
Nolan McLean +260
JJ Wetherholt +750
Konnor Griffin +850
Owen Caissie +1500
Moises Ballesteros +1700
Andrew Painter +2200
Bubba Chandler +2200
Justin Crawford +2200
Didier Fuentes +3500
Carson Benge +4000
Foster Griffin +4000
Rhett Lowder +5000
TJ Rumfield +5000

Konnor Griffin was the co-favorite to be named NL Rookie of the Year when he was called up for the Pirates, but he has since fallen down the odds list. It's now Stewart of the Reds and Nolan McLean of the Mets who have taken over as the top two favorites.

If you want someone who may present a bit more value, consider Moises Ballesteros, the Cubs' designated hitter and catcher. He has an OPS of .907 on the season, which ranks third amongst all rookies who have appeared in 10 or more games. His biggest detractor will be just how much he will play, but much like Jensen, when he gets in the game on defense, he plays one of the most important positions on the roster.

If he continues to step in as the DH, or if Carson Kelly suffers an injury, he's going to get plenty of time to prove why he should be considered one of the top rookies in baseball.

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