Munetaka Murakami Home Run Derby Odds and Prediction (Can White Sox Star Make Semis?)

Munetaka Murakami hasn’t disappointed in his first MLB season. The Chicago White Sox first baseman hit 20 home runs in 57 games before hitting the injured list, and returned late last week to be healthy enough for the All-Star festivities.

The Japanese slugger is no stranger to hitting home runs. He had 56 home runs as a 22-year-old in the JPCL in 2022, and totalled 265 home runs in 1,003 games overseas.

Murakami is making his Home Run Derby debut as the event debuts a new format as well. No longer will there be a clock or outs. Instead, players will have 20 swings in the first round, 15 in the second, and 15 again in the final round.

Let’s take a look at Murakami’s odds to win the Home Run Derby in 2026, as well as my prediction for his performance.

Munetaka Murakami Home Run Derby Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

To Win: +500
To Make Final: +235
Round 1 Total: 9.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
To Make the Semifinals: -120
To Have Longest Home Run: +450

Munetaka Murakami Home Run Derby Prediction

Murakami’s recent injury puts a bit of a damper on the slugger’s chances as he enters the Home Run Derby. He missed over a month with a Grade 2 hamstring strain and only has one hit (a double) in 11 at-bats since returning.

Of course, that’s against competitive pitching, which won’t be the case on Monday night in the Home Run Derby.

Murakami is one of a handful of left-handed hitters in this field, helping him in a stadium like Citizens Bank Park. It’s built for left-handed bats, especially after the left-field fences were moved back early in the stadium’s existence.

According to Baseball Savant, Citizens Bank Park has a home run factor of 110 for right-handed hitters and 116 for left-handed hitters this season. It’s only a slight advantage, but that could be the difference in an event like this.

Murakami is a bit of a wild card in the Home Run Derby due to his injury. However, he’s shown in his career that he’s able to leave the yard with regularity.

His odds aren’t quite long enough for me to take him to win the whole thing, but I do like him to smash in the first round and his odds are pretty fair for him to make the semifinal.

Pick(s): Murakami to Make Semifinals (-120); Murakami Round 1 Homers OVER 9.5 (-110)

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and get $200 in bonus bets instantly when you make your first $5 bet.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Add us as a preferred source on Google