Nationals vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Monday, Sept. 7

The San Diego Padres are a half game out of a playoff spot in the National League heading into Monday’s series opener at home against the Washington Nationals.

San Diego is one win behind the Arizona Diamondbacks, but it could make that ground up over the course of the next few weeks to earn the third and final wild card spot in the NL.

Luckily, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Co. are heavily favored at home against a Washington team that is 11 games under .500 and out of the playoff mix in the NL.

Washington has right-hander Jake Irvin (5.57 ERA) on the mound for his eighth start since coming off the injured list in late July. Irvin has a 6.09 ERA since returning to action.

He’ll take on Padres righty Nick Pivetta, who is making his first appearance in nearly five months after dealing with a flexor strain in his elbow. Pivetta’s return could be huge for San Diego in the postseason, but it’ll need him to pitch well to get there.

Before going down, Pivetta had a 1.87 expected ERA and an actual ERA of 1.22 in four starts.

Can he lead the Padres to a home win this evening?

Here’s a look at the odds, my favorite prop bet and a prediction for this National League showdown.

Nationals vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Nationals +157
Padres -192

Moneyline

Nationals: +1.5 (-134)
Padres: -1.5 (+111)

Total

8 (Over -112/Under -108)

Nationals vs. Padres Probable Pitchers

Washington: Jake Irvin (2-8, 5.57 ERA)
San Diego: Nick Pivetta (1-2, 4.50 ERA)

Nationals vs. Padres How to Watch

Date: Monday, Sept. 7
Time: 5:10 p.m. ESt
Venue: Petco Park
How to Watch (TV): Nationals.TV/Padres.TV
Nationals record: 67-78
Padres record: 75-68

Nationals vs. Padres Best MLB Prop Bets

Padres Best MLB Prop Bet

Fernando Tatis Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+364)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run props column – Daily Dinger – why Tatis is a great bet to go deep against Irvin:

Since the All-Star break, San Diego Padres star Fernando Tatis Jr. has homered 15 times in 46 games while posting an insane .960 OPS.

After going deep once again on Sunday, Tatis is set at +364 to homer in a series opener with the Washington Nationals on Monday. It’s hard to find a better matchup than the one that Tatis has this evening, as Jake Irvin 5.57 ERA is on the mound for the Nats.

Irvin allowed the most homers in MLB last season, and he’s given up 15 home runs in 18 appearances in 2026.

That’s a great sign for Tatis, who has three home runs in his last six games and nine in his last 24 games (four weeks of action). The Padres need all the offense they can get to stay alive in the NL playoff race, and I expect Tatis to tee off on this Nationals team.

Once Irvin exits, the matchup remains an easy one, as Washington is 29th in bullpen ERA (5.08) this season while the ‘pen has given up 100 home runs.

Nationals vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

Pivetta hasn’t pitched in the big leagues in months, but it’s hard to deny that he’s the better pitcher in this matchup.

Irvin is coming off a shaky 2025 season where allowed the most home runs in MLB, and he hasn’t been much better in 2026. The Nationals are just 9-9 in his starts, and they are backing him up with a bullpen that ranks 29th in MLB in ERA.

The Padres have been a below average offense this season (20th in Weighted Runs Created Plus), but I trust this pitching staff, especially at home.

San Diego is 14 games over .500 at home this season, and it has a 3.45 bullpen ERA (No. 5 in MLB).

Even if Pivetta can’t give the Padres a ton of length, they should be able to piece together the back half of this matchup. Washington’s offense has been the key to the team’s improvement this season, but it’s just 19th in runs scored and 22nd in OPS over the last 30 days.

With that drop off, I think San Diego is an easy bet at home in this series opener.

Pick: Padres Moneyline (-192 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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