Nationals vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Tuesday, Sept. 8

The Padres are heavily favored at home in Game 2 of this series.

San Diego Padres pitcher Casey Mize is an interesting prop target on Sept. 8. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

A ton of National League wild card implications are on the line early this week, especially when it comes to the NL West and the final wild card spot.  

The San Diego Padres earned a 3-2 win over the Washington Nationals on Monday, keeping pace with the Arizona Diamondbacks (who take on the Kansas City Royals tonight) for the third and final wild card spot in the NL. 

San Diego is still a half game behind the D-Backs, but it is heavily favored on Tuesday against a Washington team that has fallen out of the playoff race in the NL.

The Nationals are now 12 games under .500 this season, and they’re facing an uphill battle on the road tonight with Riley Cornelio (5.96 ERA) getting the start in a bullpen game. Washington has the No. 29 bullpen ERA in MLB, so this could be a big game for the San Diego offense.

The Padres will counter with right-hander Casey Mize (3.64 ERA), who has struggled a bit since being acquired from the Detroit Tigers at the trade deadline.

Still, oddsmakers have the Padres set as nearly 2/1 favorites after they won Monday’s series opener.

Let’s dive right into the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for a crucial matchup for the NL playoff race. 

Nationals vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Nationals +1.5 (-136)
• Padres -1.5 (+113)

Moneyline

• Nationals: +158
• Padres: -193

Total

• 8 (Over -105/Under -114)

Nationals vs. Padres Probable Pitchers

• Washington: Riley Cornelio (2-2, 5.96 ERA)
• San Diego: Casey Mize (5-9, 3.64 ERA)

Nationals vs. Padres How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, Sept. 8
• Time: 9:40 p.m. ST
• Venue: Petco Park
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN Unlimited, Nationals.TV/Padres.TV
• Nationals record: 67-79
• Padres record: 76-68

Nationals vs. Padres Best MLB Prop Bets

Padres Best MLB Prop Bet

• Casey Mize OVER 4.5 Hits Allowed (+100)

I’m not sold on Mize in this matchup against a Washington offense that is third in the league in OPS, eighth in batting average and fourth in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+). 

Mize has allowed five or more hits in four of his six outings with the Padres, giving up 32 total hits in 27.0 innings of work. He’s been chased early in a few games – which could hurt this prop – but Mize now ranks in the 48th percentile or worse in average exit velocity against, hard-hit percentage and barrel percentage this season. 

The Washington offense has fallen off a bit down the stretch of this season, but I think this could be a high-scoring game, which makes Mize an automatic fade candidate. The Padres righty has allowed at least five hits in nine of his last 13 starts, dating back to June 17. 

Nationals vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

In today’s edition of Walk-Off Wagers – our MLB Best Bets column at SI – I shared why I’m taking the OVER in Game 2 of this series: 

The San Diego Padres took Monday’s series opener against the Washington Nationals, keeping themselves within a half game of the final wild card spot in the National League. 

Now, they’re favored on Tuesday with trade-deadline addition Casey Mize on the mound.

Washington is going with a bullpen game, led by Riley Cornelio, who has a 5.96 ERA in 2026. The Nationals have one of the worst bullpens in the league, posting a 5.06 ERA overall (29th) while allowing 100 home runs and 654 hits – which both are the most in MLB. 

Still, I’m not sold on taking San Diego to win outright, especially with the current moneyline price.

Instead, I’m eyeing the OVER.

The OVER has hit in 54.4 percent of Washington’s games this season, and the Nationals’ offense has impressed for most of the season, ranking fourth in the league in wRC+. 

Mize has been far from lights out in a Padres uniform, allowing four or more runs in four of his outings, posting a 6.67 ERA. There’s a real chance that both offenses explode in the early innings, and I don’t trust the Washington bullpen to slow down San Diego for an entire game. 

With this total sitting at just eight, there’s a little extra cushion since this could push as well on Tuesday night. 

Pick: OVER 8 (-105 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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