Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Rockets, Knicks, Tyrese Maxey, Dylan Harper)

It doesn’t get much better than Wednesday’s NBA action, as 24 teams are set to take the floor, giving bettors and fans a ton of action to dive into. It’s what I call a perfect League Pass Night!

Unfortunately, injuries have become the story of Wednesday’s action with Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Anthony Edwards, Jalen Suggs, Kawhi Leonard, Paolo Banchero and others suffering major injuries early on in the season.

Those have impacted several betting lines on Oct. 28 – and in the futures market – and it’s the subject of today’s look back on the first week of the season.

Dew’s Review: I’m taking a different route with Dew’s Review today and simply looking at the injuries as a whole in the NBA this season, as it has become a massive talking point.

Too much bad news to start the NBA season.

Hopefully Ant is ready to go for the second half but this is a huge blow to Minnesota’s playoff positioning. https://t.co/y7D7xRIKXV
— Peter Dewey (@peterdewey2) October 27, 2026

The Anthony Edwards injury is the latest to come in, and begs the question if the season is too long – and too intense – to sustain for 82 games. Teams are playing at a super fast pace, and the game is evolving rapidly with winning the possession battle as a major focus. Just 10 years ago, the team that played at the fastest pace was Brooklyn (101.75 possession per 49 minutes). This season, that pace would be tied for 16th. The New York Knicks – the team with the slowest pace in the 2026-27 campaign – would be 11th in the 2016-17 season.

The game has changed, and at the end of the day, the product is only going to suffer if the best players can’t sustain themselves for entire regular seasons and playoff runs. At some point, the league has to consider lightening the load on the schedule to help these teams combat some of the injury concerns.

Peter’s Point: We have a ton of hoops to get to tonight! If A.J. Dybantsa makes his season debut (he’s questionable), he’ll certainly be on my radar during this 12-game slate. But, my No. 1 game to watch has to be the Miami vs. Atlanta showdown as the Heat look to avoid an 0-5 start. The offense has been clunky for Miami with Giannis Antetokounmpo in the fold, and Miami is just 28th overall in net rating this season. There already have to be some worries about the makeup of this team, and another loss will only intensify those concerns.

Wednesday’s a massive day in the NBA before just three games on Thursday, so I’m looking to take advantage with these five picks after a slow start through the first week of the season.

Peter Dewey NBA Betting Record

2026-27 season record: 9-14 (-6.39 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1630-1542-27 (+23.78 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Tyrese Maxey OVER 24.5 Points (-117)
Washington Wizards +10.5 (-115) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
New York Knicks Moneyline + Houston Rockets Moneyline (-132)
Jaden McDaniels OVER 22.5 Points and Rebounds (-117)
Dylan Harper 15+ Points (-165)

Tyrese Maxey OVER 24.5 Points (-117)

Philadelphia 76ers star guard Tyrese Maxey is off to a great start this season, averaging 28.8 points on 22.0 shots per game while shooting 46.6 percent from the field and 30.0 percent from 3.

The 3-point shooting should improve as the season goes on – Maxey is a career 37.6-percent shooter from deep – and I think he’s undervalued a bit in this matchup with the Indiana Pacers.

Indy is 16th in the league in opponent points per game through the first week of action, and the Sixers and Pacers are both top-seven teams in the league in pace. I could see this being an uptempo matchup where Maxey and Philly put on another strong offensive display.

This line has fallen for Maxey with Jaylen Brown, LeBron James and Joel Embiid all expected to play, but the star guard has 28 and 32 points in his two games with all four players in action and 26 or more points in every game this season. He’s also averaged 25.9 points per game or more in each of his last three completed seasons.

I think oddsmakers are putting too much stock into a full healthy Sixers lineup limiting Maxey’s touches when he’s taken 21 shots per game when all four play in the 2026-27 campaign.

Washington Wizards +10.5 (-115) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

The Washington Wizards didn’t come through with an underdog bet that I had on Monday night, but I’m going back to the well with this team set as a double-digit underdog on the road against the Cleveland Cavaliers, especially with A.J. Dybantsa (questionable) potentially ready to make his regular-season debut.

The Cavs’ resume to open the 2026-27 campaign is far from impressive. They blew a 24-point halftime lead in a loss to Philly, beat a winless Brooklyn team by four points and went to overtime at home against a Minnesota team on the second night of a back-to-back, winning by two. So, I don’t have a ton of confidence in this team winning big against a much-improved Wizards squad.

The Cavs are 0-3 against the spread this season and were 21-29 ATS at home in the 2025-26 campaign – the second-worst mark in the NBA.

Washington has a much higher floor with Anthony Davis and Trae Young in the fold, and it has a neutral 0.0 net rating this season. I don’t expect a Wizards upset, but I do think they’ll be able to hang around against a Cavs team that doesn’t have a ton of depth in the 2026-27 season.

New York Knicks Moneyline + Houston Rockets Moneyline (-132)

New York Knicks

Jalen Brunson and the Knicks picked up their first win of the season on Tuesday night against Detroit, looking a little better on offense than they did during their 0-3 start. The Knicks are still title contenders, and I’m buying them on the road – even on a back-to-back – against the Chicago Bulls.

Chicago has just one win this season (against a tanking Milwaukee team) and it has allowed 124 or more points in every game this season, including a 35-point loss to Boston on Monday. The Bulls have a few key vets like Josh Giddey and Norman Powell, but this is a rebuilding team around Caleb Wilson that is going to have a lot of growing pains.

It’s a perfect get-right spot for the New York offense, as the Bulls are 27th in the NBA in defensive rating and dead last in opponent point per game. The defending champs had a tough schedule to open the season, playing four playoff contenders in Philly, Boston, Orlando and Detroit.

This is the first “bankable” win on their schedule, and I expect Mike Brown and Co. to go after it hard since the team got out of the gate with an 0-3 start. The Bulls have already lost two games by 35 or more points, so I wouldn't be shocked if the Knicks run away with this matchup.

For the sake of this parlay, all we need is for the Knicks to win. I think they make that happen on Wednesday night.

Houston Rockets

The Houston Rockets have some serious championship equity early on in the 2026-27 season, going 4-0 with key wins over the San Antonio Spurs, Dallas Mavericks and Atlanta Hawks.

Now, Houston goes on the road – without star center Alperen Sengun – to face the one-win Milwaukee Bucks. This Bucks team is ravaged after trading away Giannis Antetokounmpo, and it ranks 22nd in the NBA in net rating and 25th in opponent points per game.

The Houston offense has been on fire with Fred VanVleet at the controls, ranking third in offensive rating and fourth in effective field goal percentage. Ime Udoka’s teams have been synonymous with top-10 defenses, and the Bucks already have multiple losses by double digits this season.

Milwaukee isn’t a playoff contender, and the Rockets have not only won their four games, but they’ve covered the spread in all of them.

This is an easy spot to back them in a moneyline parlay.

Jaden McDaniels OVER 22.5 Points and Rebounds (-117)

Anthony Edwards (knee) is out for the next two months, which means the Minnesota Timberwolves have to get more from Jaden McDaniels in the coming weeks.

McDaniels is certainly capable of taking a step forward on offense, and he showed that in the playoffs last season against the Denver Nuggets with Edward sidelined. The two-way wing is averaging 15.0 points, 6.5 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game this season while shooting 59.1 percent from the field and 42.9 percent from 3. He may already deserve an expanded role on offense heading into tonight’s matchup with the Golden State Warriors.

The Warriors are just 28th in defensive rating over their first four games, making this a perfect spot for McDaniels to get going as one of the top options for the Wolves. Plus, he’s been great on the boards, grabbing six or more in each of his four games.

McDaniels is averaging 11.3 rebound chances per game, and now he’s taking on a Warriors team that lacks any real frontcourt presence with Kristaps Porzingis sideined.

In his last 10 games without Edwards, McDaniels is averaging 18.5 points, 4.8 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game. He should push those numbers – and potentially more – given his strong start to the 2026-27 season.

Dylan Harper 15+ Points (-165)

San Antonio Spurs guard Dylan Harper fell short of this number for the first time in the 2026-27 season on Tuesday, shooting 6-for-7 from the field and scoring 13 points in a blowout win over the Sacramento Kings.

Harper and the rest of the Spurs’ starters all saw their minutes fall in a blowout win, and I expect the second-year guard to see a few more touches on Wednesday in a road date against the Utah Jazz.

This season, Harper is still averaging 18.3 points on 14.3 shots per game, shooting an impressive 52.6 percent from the field. The Jazz lack an elite guard/wing defender with young players Keyonte George and Darryn Peterson manning their backcourt spots. Plus, Jaren Jackson Jr. (torn MCL) is out for this game and won’t be at the rim to deter shots.

That’s a great sign for the Spurs and Harper, and moving this line down to 15+ allows for a little room for error in case he plays less on the second night of a back-to-back.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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