Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Jayson Tatum, Blazers-Spurs, CJ McCollum)

The No. 2 and No. 3 teams in the latest NBA Finals odds both have a chance to clinch a spot in the conference semifinals on Tuesday night.

Jayson Tatum – one of my favorite player prop targets tonight – and the Boston Celtics have a 3-1 series lead against the Philadelphia 76ers while Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs turned in a crazy second half in Game 4 to take a 3-1 series lead over the Portland Trail Blazers.

Those teams highlight tonight’s action, which also features a massive Game 5 between the New York Knicks and Atlanta Hawks.

Tuesday, April 28’s NBA Playoff Games

Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics (Boston leads 3-1)
Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks (Series tied 2-2)
Portland Trail Blazers vs. San Antonio Spurs (San Antonio leads 3-1)

In addition to my Tatum prop for Tuesday night, there is one side and another prop that I’ve bet on the road to 600 NBA bets in the 2025-26 season. A slow start to the playoffs certainly hurt this year’s record, but I’ve bounced back over the last week with some of these first-round matchups near a close.

Let’s examine the odds and analysis behind April 28’s NBA Best Bets!

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 272-231 (+0.11 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1563-1469-27 (+33.26 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

CJ McCollum OVER 19.5 Points (-120)
San Antonio Spurs -11.5 (-115) vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Jayson Tatum OVER 16.5 Rebounds and Assists (-135)

CJ McCollum OVER 19.5 Points (-120)

CJ McCollum has inserted himself as this year’s villain at Madison Square Garden, averaging 24.5 points per game over the first four games against New York. He’s put up 23 or more points in three of the four games in this series, shooting 51.3 percent from the field and 33.3 percent from 3-point range.

McCollum hit clutch shots at the end of Games 2 and 3, and he’s taking a whopping 19.0 shots per game for the Hawks.

So, the volume is there for the star guard heading into Game 5.

It’s going to be a hostile environment at Madison Square Garden, but McCollum thrived in that environment in Game 2. He did fall short of this line in his last game, shooting 8-of-15 from the field and 0-of-4 from 3. He still finished with 17 points, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see McCollum reach 20-plus points for the fourth time in this series.

The star guard averages 20.3 points per game in the playoffs (71 games) in his career.

San Antonio Spurs -11.5 (-115) vs. Portland Trail Blazers

The Spurs rallied from deficits in Games 3 and 4, and they now have a stranglehold on the Blazers in this first-round matchup.

Victor Wembanyama looked like his usual self in his return from a concussion in Game 4, recording seven blocks and four steals while also putting up 27 points and 12 rebounds. San Antonio is a much better team with him on the floor, and the only loss for the team in the series was a second-half collapse in Game 2 after he went out with his concussion.

Portland had the worst offensive rating of any playoff team after Sunday’s Game 4 loss, and I don’t expect that to change against a Spurs team that was No. 3 in defensive rating during the regular season. In fact, the Spurs have a defensive rating that is seven points better than it was during the regular season.

San Antonio dominated at home all season, going 32-8, and it has covered the spread in 21 games as a home favorite. Meanwhile, the Blazers are just 13-14 against the spread as road dogs, posting an average scoring margin of -9.4 in those games.

The Spurs seemed to put this series to bed in Game 4 when they outscored the Blazers 73-35 in the second half. I’m buying them to finish the job at home.

Jayson Tatum OVER 16.5 Rebounds and Assists (-135)

Tatum’s return to the lineup this season has been nothing short of amazing, and he’s played at an extremely high level in the playoffs, averaging 24.8 points, 9.3 rebounds and 8.5 assists per game.

I’m focusing on his rebounds and assists numbers in this game, as he’s cleared 16.5 rebounds and assists in three of four games in this series (18, 23, 12, 18).

After putting up double-digit boards in Games 1 and 2, Tatum has taken a step back there over the last two games. Still, he has seven or more dimes in every game in this series, including an 11-assist showing in Game 4.

The Sixers have not had an answer for Tatum, and they finished the regular season ranking 21st in rebound percentage and 22nd in opponent assists per game. I expect the All-NBA forward to continue to hover around a triple-double in Game 5.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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