Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Karl-Anthony Towns, Jayson Tatum, Hawks, Wolves)

Not one, not two but three home underdogs take the floor on Thursday night in the NBA Playoffs, and only one – the Minnesota Timberwolves – can advance to the conference semifinals with a win.

Minnesota is down Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo, but it has a 3-2 lead on the Denver Nuggets with a chance to close things out at home. Denver won Game 5 to keep its season alive, and it is a 5.5-point favorite on the road in this matchup. The Wolves won Games 3 and 4 at home earlier in the series, but the loss of Edwards gives Minnesota very little room for error on the offensive end against Nikola Jokic and company.

In the Eastern Conference, it’s possible the New York Knicks and Boston Celtics win and set up an interesting second-round rematch after New York beat Boston in the 2025 NBA Playoffs.

However, the Atlanta Hawks (2.5-point underdogs against the Knicks) and Philadelphia 76ers (5.5-point underdogs against Boston) aren’t going to go quietly.

Philly upset the C’s in Boston in Game 5 to extend their season, riding a huge game from Joel Embiid (33 points, eight assists) to a double-digit win. Meanwhile, Atlanta is looking to snap a two-game skid that has given the Knicks a 3-2 series lead in this first-round matchup. The Hawks have won two games (both by one point) behind big scoring games from CJ McCollum.

With so much at stake, and the potential that all three of these series end on Thursday, I’m eyeing a few bets for the playoff action.

Let’s dive into the odds and analysis behind each pick for the final day of playoff basketball in April.

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 274-232 (+0.72 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1565-1470-27 (+33.87 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Boston Celtics -5.5 (-115) vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Karl-Anthony Towns 35+ Points, Rebound and Assists (-149)
Jayson Tatum 10+ Rebounds (-167)
Minnesota Timberwolves-Atlanta Hawks Parlay (-154)

Boston Celtics -5.5 (-115) vs. Philadelphia 76ers

How many times have we seen Boston shoot terribly in a playoff loss and then bounce back with a win?

Boston is 25-14 on the road in the playoffs since the 2020-21 season, and it covered this number in both road wins against Philly earlier in the series. Embiid is a factor – Boston doesn’t have a player that can match up with him – but the recipe for the Celtics is too simply shoot better than they did in Game 5.

The Celtics are shooting just 27.2 percent from deep in their two losses in this series and 41.6 percent from 3 in their wins. I expect a bounce-back showing from a Boston team that is 17-9 against the spread as a road favorite, posting an average scoring margin of +12.7 points in those games.

Philadelphia emptied the tank on Tuesday, playing Embiid a ton of minutes to force a Game 6. With a quick turnaround on Thursday, I think that favors Boston, which doesn’t need to play its “A” game to win this series.

Karl-Anthony Towns 35+ Points, Rebounds and Assists (-149)

New York Knicks big man Karl-Anthony Towns has been awesome in the playoffs, averaging 20.0 points, 11.4 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game while shooting 59.3 percent from the field and 47.1 percent from beyond the arc.

New York has run more of the offense through Towns in the last few games, including Game 5 when Jalen Brunson poured in 39 points. Towns still finished with 16 points and six dimes in that matchup, giving him 16 assists over the last two games.

The former No. 1 overall pick has put up 37, 28, 42, 40 and 36 PRA in his five games in this series. The Hawks simply don’t have a player that can match up on Towns one-on-one, and he’s found his 3-point shot after shooting under 37 percent from deep in the regular season.

I’m buying KAT to lead the way with the Knicks looking to close out this series on Thursday.

Jayson Tatum 10+ Rebounds (-167)

Boston Celtics star Jayson Tatum turned in his third double-digit rebounding game of the playoffs, putting up 16 boards in the team’s Game 5 loss.

Tatum is now averaging 15.6 rebound chances per game in the playoffs, and he’s put up 10.5, 9.7, 11.5 and 10.6 rebounds per game over his last four playoff runs. Boston has needed the star forward on the glass with Neemias Queta struggling with fouls in this series, and he has at least 11 boards in three of the five games.

I think he’s worth a look in this market as Boston looks to close out this series in Game 6.

Minnesota Timberwolves-Atlanta Hawks Parlay (-154)

Atlanta Hawks +10.5
Minnesota Timberwolves +13.5

I’m taking a little two-team parlay with some alternate lines with Atlanta and Minnesota looking to protect home court in Game 6.

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks have the third-worst net rating in the playoffs (-11.0), but they do have two outright wins as underdogs in this series.

While I’m not sold on Atlanta winning Game 6 against the Knicks, I do think it will be able to hang around after a dismal offensive showing in Game 5. Atlanta had a huge lead in Game 3 before surviving a Knicks comeback, and the Hawks’ offense had a lot of success in the first three games of this series.

Quin Snyder’s group should pull out all of the stops in Game 6, and it’s worth noting that the Knicks were one of the worst teams in the league against the spread when favored on the road during the regular season.

Overall (playoffs included), New York is 16-27 against the spread as a road team. Only the Washington Wizards covered the spread at a lower rate this season, so I wouldn't be shocked if Atlanta hangs around on Thursday.

My original series pick was Knicks in 7, and I think that’s still possible, even though New York has looked much better over the last two games.

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves are facing an uphill battle – despite being up in this series – with Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo out.

Still, there is a case to be made for the Wolves to cover this number in Game 6, especially since they hung around in the first half of Game 5. The defense for the Timberwolves has been the difference in this series, ranking sixth in defensive rating amongst playoff teams while the Nuggets are 12th in effective field goal percentage.

Denver was able to get big games from both Spencer Jones and Cameron Johnson in Game 5, but will that carry over on the road? The supporting cast for the Nuggets is extremely suspect with Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson injured, and the Timberwolves are 4-4 against the spread when set as home dogs this season.

I wouldn't be shocked if the Wolves hang around in this game, especially since they won two games outright at home already in this series – including Game 4 with Edwards missing the entire second half.

Even in their Game 5 loss, the Wolves kept this game within 13.5 points – something they’ve done in all five games in this series.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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