Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Karl-Anthony Towns, Knicks-Spurs Game 2, Harper)

It’s been a very, very long time since this statement was true, but the New York Knicks are favored to win the NBA Finals.

Jalen Brunson and the Knicks took Game 1 against the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday night, riding a 13-point fourth quarter from Brunson and some impressive defense all night long to steal one in San Antonio.

There’s an old saying that a playoff series doesn’t begin until a road team wins a game, so we’ve officially got a series on our hands heading into Game 2.

Oddsmakers have set the Spurs as 5.5-point favorites in this matchup, but they struggled to get much going on offense in Game 1, scoring just 95 points in the loss. New York now has the best defensive rating in the playoffs (102.9), and it’s on a 12-game winning streak after taking Game 1.

San Antonio bounced back in a big way from a Game 1 loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves in the second round of the playoffs, but will it have the same success against a Knicks team that leads the NBA in net rating, offensive rating, defensive rating and effective field goal percentage this postseason?

I’m eyeing three plays for Friday’s Game 2, including a player prop for Karl-Anthony Towns, who was a complete game-changer in the Knicks’ series-opening victory.

Let’s take a look at the odds and analysis behind each of these bets on June 5.

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 320-289 (-12.05 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1611-1525-27 (+21.10 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Dylan Harper OVER 11.5 Points (-121)
Karl-Anthony Towns 11+ Rebounds (-147)
New York Knicks +5.5 (-105) vs. San Antonio Spurs

Dylan Harper OVER 11.5 Points (-121)

I expect to see an expanded role for Dylan Harper in Game 2, even though he was pulled in the closing minutes for Devin Vassell.

The rookie played just under 28 minutes and had 16 points on 6-of-10 shooting while also adding eight rebounds. Harper is fearless on the offensive end, and he took advantage of the Knicks by driving to the basket time and time again in Game 1.

This postseason, Harper is averaging 13.2 points on 9.1 shots per game, and he’s scored 12 or more points in 11 of 19 games, including three in a row. With De’Aaron Fox struggling with his shot right now, the Spurs may want to give Harper a few more minutes – and touches – in Game 2.

Karl-Anthony Towns 11+ Rebounds (-147)

Karl-Anthony Towns played a terrific Game 1 for New York, scoring 18 points and pulling down 12 rebounds while holding Wembanyama in check on offense.

If there’s one thing Towns is going to do every night, it’s hit the boards, as he’s averaging 10.7 rebounds on 16.9 rebound chances per game in the playoffs. While foul trouble in the second round against Philadelphia has lowered KAT’s postseason average, he still has 11 or more boards in eight of his 15 playoff games.

The All-Star big man avoided foul trouble and played over 34 minutes in Game 1, so hopefully he can duplicate that showing on Friday. In the regular season, Towns averaged 11.9 rebounds per game to lead the Knicks.

New York Knicks +5.5 (-105) vs. San Antonio Spurs

I took the Knicks to win this series, and Game 1 was about as good of a confirmation as any that they can hang with anyone in the league.

Not only did the Knicks win on the road and erase a double-digit deficit, but they ended up winning the game by 10 points. Brunson is the best closer in the NBA right now, and it seems like the Knicks have a chance to win as long as they’re within a couple possessions in the final minutes.

Let’s just look at this New York playoff run for a second. The Knicks rank:

No. 1 in offensive rating
No. 1 in defensive rating
No. 1 in net rating
No. 1 in effective field goal percentage
No. 1 in assist/turnover ratio

They’ve won 12 games in a row and have two losses that were over 40 days ago, both by one point. No matter how you feel about the “path” that New York took to get to this spot, it has blown out everyone in the East and just went toe-to-toe with the Spurs on the road and won.

While Wembanyama should have a better shooting performance in Game 2, the Knicks didn’t exactly light things up on the offensive end. But, their ability to space the floor and draw Wembanyama out of the paint in key moments was a difference maker in Game 1.

I know that home teams usually rebound in a big way after losing Game 1 – we’ve seen it all postseason – but this Knicks team doesn’t die. I think it’s a gift to get 5.5 points in a Finals game when New York may be the better team.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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