Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Nikola Jokic, Nuggets vs. Thunder, Tyrese Maxey)

The NBA’s opening week calms down a bit on Thursday night with just two games, but they’re two awesome games to watch.

The night starts with the new-look Cleveland Cavaliers making their season debut against a Philadelphia 76ers team that upset the New York Knicks on Tuesday night at Madison Square Garden. It was a strong start for LeBron James and Jaylen Brown with their new team, and the Sixers are favored at home in this Eastern Conference battle.

Later in the night, we head West for one of the best rivalries in the league, as Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets begin their 2026-27 season on the road against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder looked like the title favorite on Tuesday night, smoking the San Antonio Spurs while holding Victor Wembanyama to just 1-for-13 shooting from the field.

Can they slow down Jokic in his first game of the 2026-27 season? The Thunder are 7.5-point favorites at home in this Western Conference clash.

We’re a few days into Peter’s Points this season, and there was a lot that intrigued me during Wednesday’s 11-game slate. So, let’s get right into Dew’s Review before we discuss Thursday night’s best bets.

Dew’s Review: Anthony Edwards was my favorite player to watch on Tuesday night, and he put on a shot-making clinic in the Wolves' win over Miami. I wrote in my preseason column that if this new-look Minnesota team works, the ceiling is making the NBA Finals. Game 1 was a pretty great start for the LaMelo Ball-Edwards duo.

Peter’s Point: What will the Cavs’ rotation look like on Thursday? Cleveland moved on from Max Strus, Dennis Schroder, Dean Wade and Keon Ellis in the offseason, bringing in Peyton Watson to play a major role on the wing. Watson’s play is going to play a major role in Cleveland’s ceiling this season, and I’m curious how the Cavs plan to guard this elite Sixers starting lineup with Tyrese Maxey, Brown, VJ Edgecombe, James and Joel Embiid. I’ll be watching to see who Kenny Atkinson really trusts off the bench early on this season.

It’s only a two-game slate on Thursday, but I’ve made three bets for the day’s action, including another player prop for Maxey, who came through with a winner on opening night.

Peter Dewey NBA Betting Record

2026-27 season record: 3-4 (-1.43 units)
2025-26 season record: 330-292-0 (-2.98 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1624-1532-27 (+28.74 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Tyrese Maxey OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (+106)
Oklahoma City Thunder -7.5 (-115) vs. Denver Nuggets
Nikola Jokic OVER 12.5 Rebounds (-127)

Tyrese Maxey OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (+106)

Maxey led the NBA in minutes per game in the 2025-26 season, and he played nearly 40 minutes on opening night in the Sixers’ win over the Knicks, taking 19 shots and nine 3-pointers in the process.

The star guard shot just 2-for-9 from beyond the arc, in the win, but he’s coming off three consecutive seasons where he averaged at least three made 3s on at least eight attempts per game. Maxey is a career 37.7 percent shooter from beyond the arc, so I expect his 3-point shooting to improve after a shaky performance on Tuesday.

A two-time All-Star, Maxey still finished with 28 points on Tuesday, and I love him against the Cavs and their shaky defense on Thursday. Peyton Watson won’t be able to guard every wing for this Philly team, and Maxey should be able to hunt Donovan Mitchell and James Harden all game long.

The Cavs also were a bottom-five team in opponent 3s made per game in the 2025-26 season. As long as the volume remains the same for Maxey, I think he’s undervalued at +106 to make three or more shots from deep in his second game of the season.

Oklahoma City Thunder -7.5 (-115) vs. Denver Nuggets

The Thunder were insanely impressive against San Antonio on Tuesday night, shooting the lights out in the first half on their way to a 12-point road win.

After injuries derailed the Thunder’s playoff run in the 2025-26 season, they look as deep as ever with a guard rotation that features Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace, Jared McCain and Ajay Mitchell.

The Thunder won three of the four games between these teams in the 2025-26 season, and they were clearly the better defense (No. 1) while Denver clocked in at No. 21.

Losing Peyton Watson is going to hurt the Nuggets’ athleticism on the wing, and Denver’s bench is extremely thin after DeMar DeRozan in terms of proven scorers. Last season, injuries torpedoed Denver’s playoff run, and I think it may struggle out of the gate against arguably the deepest team in the NBA.

The first few games of the season usually are a little sloppier on the offensive end, and that doesn’t bode well for a Denver team that needs to outscore teams if it wants to get back tk the 50-win threshold in the 2026-27 season.

At home, the Thunder were just 24-25 against the spread last season, but they posted an average scoring margin of plus-11.7 points in those games. I’ll take them to win and cover on Thursday after a commanding showing on opening night.

Nikola Jokic OVER 12.5 Rebounds (-127)

Three-time league MVP Nikola Jokic led the NBA in rebounds per game last season (12.9) – his third year in a row where he averaged over 12 boards per game.

Jokic has thrived on the glass against the Thunder, averaging 27.0 points, 13.5 rebounds and 7.6 assists in his last 10 games against them. He’s picked up at least 13 boards in seven of those matchups, and I’m going back to the well with that prop on Thursday night.

Not only did Jokic lead the league in rebounds, but he also had the most rebound chances per game (16.4) of any player with at least 20 games played. The Thunder were 22nd in the NBA in rebound percentage last season, and they allowed 13 boards to Victor Wembanyama in Tuesday’s opener.

OKC outrebounded the Spurs 47-45 in that matchup, but a 45-board game for the Nuggets should result in Jokic clearing this total. Denver was a top-10 team in rebound percentage last season, and Jokic had 14 and 17 boards in his last two games against OKC during the 2025-26 campaign.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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