NBA Win Total Projections for Every Team After Free Agency Frenzy (Thunder, Cavs Lead)

Breaking down the win total projections for every NBA team in the 2025-26 season.

Peter Dewey | Jul 11, 2025

The Thunder have the highest win total projection in the NBA. / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

It’s been a wild few weeks in the NBA, as free agency transactions, trades, draft picks, and injuries have already started to shape the 2025-26 season.

Oddsmakers have slowly begun to roll out some of the futures markets for the 2025-26 campaign, starting with the NBA Finals odds — where the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder are the clear favorites.

Now, a few new markets have popped up, including the opening win totals for every team.

Some numbers have already begun to pop out in the betting community, especially with the Utah Jazz (18.5 wins) receiving one of the lowest win total projections in the last decade-plus.

The Western Conference is loaded ahead of the 2025-26 season, while injuries to Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton have weakened the East.

Could that help a few teams in the East overachieve in the 2025-26 season?

Let’s take a look at the opening win totals for every team and a few moves that each squad has made so far this offseason.

NBA Win Total Projections for Every Team in 2025-26 Season

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Oklahoma City Thunder – 62.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

OKC has the highest win total projection in the NBA after keeping its core intact from the 2024-25 season, when it won the NBA title. The Thunder drafted big man Thomas Sorber in the first round to give them more depth at center in the 2025-26 season.

Cleveland Cavaliers – 55.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

The No. 1 seed in the East in the 2024-25 season, Cleveland let Ty Jerome walk in free agency but traded Isaac Okoro for Lonzo Ball. The Cavs also retained Sam Merrill, giving them a chance to run things back in a weaker Eastern Conference.

Houston Rockets – 55.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Houston is the darling of the offseason after it traded for Kevin Durant, re-signed Steven Adams, extended Jabari Smith Jr., and signed Dorian Finney-Smith. Oddsmakers seem to think Houston will be right back in the No. 2 spot in the West in the 2025-26 season.

Denver Nuggets – 53.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Denver traded away Michael Porter Jr. and a 2032 unprotected first-round pick for Cameron Johnson, and it made some key bench additions with Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr., and likely Jonas Valanciunas. The Nuggets took OKC to seven games in the playoffs last season, and they should be right back in the mix atop the West in the 2025-26 campaign.

New York Knicks – 51.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

New Knicks head coach Mike Brown is going to have a lot of expectations in Year 1, as the Knicks made the Eastern Conference Finals last season. New York improved its depth in the offseason, adding guard Jordan Clarkson and forward Guerschon Yabusele in free agency.

Orlando Magic – 51.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

The Magic made a major splash this offseason, trading multiple first-round picks for guard Desmond Bane, but it has vaulted them into contender status in the East – in the eyes of oddsmakers. Orlando may have one of the better under-the-radar signings of the offseason as well, getting guard Tyus Jones on a one-year deal.

Minnesota Timberwolves – 50.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Minnesota did lose Nickeil Alexander-Walker this offseason, but it brought back both Naz Reid and Julius Randle. After back-to-back Western Conference Finals appearances, the Wolves appear to be poised to make a run again in the 2025-26 season.

Los Angeles Lakers – 47.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

The Lakers fixed their frontcourt issues by adding DeAndre Ayton in free agency, but they also lost Dorian Finney-Smith. There are still holes on the roster, but Luka Doncic and LeBron James are a pretty good starting point – as long as James remains in L.A.

Golden State Warriors – 47.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Golden State is betting on a full season of Jimmy Butler and Stephen Curry together being enough in the Western Conference, and it’s worth noting that the Warriors were on a crazy pace with that duo after the All-Star break.

Atlanta Hawks – 46.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

The Hawks are one of the biggest winners of the offseason, and they saw their odds jump from +12000 to +5000 to win the NBA Finals in the 2025-26 season.

Atlanta executed a sign-and-trade for Alexander-Walker, signed Luke Kennard, traded for Kristaps Porzingis, and made a shrewd draft-day trade to get an unprotected 2026 pick from New Orleans. The Hawks could find themselves in the top four in the East next season.

Los Angeles Clippers – 45.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

The Clippers have upgraded their frontcourt this offseason by signing Brook Lopez and trading for John Collins, but they could find themselves as one of the teams that fall in the West standings after earning the No. 5 seed in the 2024-25 campaign.

Milwaukee Bucks – 45.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Can Giannis Antetokounmpo will this Bucks roster to the playoffs? Milwaukee made a risky move to waive-and-stretch Damian Lillard’s deal to sign Myles Turner, but it seems like the Bucks are intent on contending with the two-time MVP on the roster for the foreseeable future.

Detroit Pistons – 45.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Detroit lost Tim Hardaway Jr. and Dennis Schroder in free agency, but it added Caris LeVert and Duncan Robinson to help replace them. The Pistons were a surprise in the East last season, earning the No. 6 seed, and the return of Jaden Ivey should put them right back in the playoff mix in the 2025-26 season.

Boston Celtics – 43.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

Jayson Tatum has a ruptured Achilles. Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday were both traded. Luke Kornet signed with San Antonio.

Boston’s core has been gutted, and it’s hard to see the C’s in title contention, unless Tatum is miraculously able to return earlier than expected in the 2025-26 season.

San Antonio Spurs – 43.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

The Spurs didn’t make a big swing this offseason, but they added No. 2 overall pick Dylan Harper to a strong guard rotation that features De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle. As long as Victor Wembanyama is healthy, the Spurs should be in the playoff mix in the 2025-26 season.

Philadelphia 76ers – 43.5 (Over +100/Under -120)

The 76ers’ season depends on Joel Embiid’s health, after he was rarely active in the 2024-25 season. Philly did add a high-upside wing with the No. 3 pick in the draft in VJ Edgecombe, but oddsmakers seem to be worried about Philly’s outlook with injury-prone players like Embiid and Paul George expected to play major roles.

Memphis Grizzlies – 40.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

The Grizzlies moved on from Bane in the offseason, but they still have a solid roster around Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. Morant is going to have to play more games in the 2025-26 season if the Grizzlies want to finish higher than a play-in tournament team.

Dallas Mavericks – 39.5 (Over +100/Under -120)

Even though Dallas landed Cooper Flagg with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, Kyrie Irving’s torn ACL looms over the team this offseason. Irving isn’t sure of when he’ll return to action, and the Mavs are going to have to rely on newly-acquired D’Angelo Russell as their primary point guard to open the 2025-26 season.

Indiana Pacers – 38.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

With Tyrese Haliburton (ruptured Achilles) expected to miss the 2025-26 season and Myles Turner now in Milwaukee, the Pacers aren’t getting much love as a title contender.

Miami Heat – 37.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Despite a solid trade for Norman Powell, the Miami Heat aren’t expected to be in the mix for a top seed in the East. Miami has finished with the No. 8 seed in the East in each of the last three seasons.

Sacramento Kings – 36.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

The Kings added Dennis Schroder to fix some of their guard depth, but Sacramento is viewed as nothing but a possible play-in contender in a loaded Western Conference based on this win total.

Toronto Raptors – 35.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

I guess we’ll finally get to see how an Immanuel Quickley-RJ Barrett-Brandon Ingram-Scottie Barnes-Jakob Poeltl lineup looks like in Toronto. That’s if they can stay healthy. The Raptors should be in the mix for a play-in tournament spot in the 2025-26 season.

Portland Trail Blazers – 33.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

Portland made a win-now move by trading for Jrue Holiday, but the team still has a lot of young developmental players on the roster. The Blazers made a push for the play-in last season, but the West is even tougher to navigate in the 2025-26 campaign.

Chicago Bulls – 32.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Based on this projection, the Bulls appear to be stuck in play-in purgatory once again. They should eventually sign restricted free agent Josh Giddey to a new deal in the offseason.

New Orleans Pelicans – 31.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Jordan Poole is in. CJ McCollum is out. Derik Queen and Jeremiah Fears are in from the NBA draft. And the Pelicans traded away their unprotected 2026 pick as if they were a playoff contender. That could end up being a major mistake.

Phoenix Suns – 30.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Phoenix is attempting to dig itself out of a terrible financial and asset situation by moving Kevin Durant and trading for center Mark Williams. The Suns aren’t good enough around Devin Booker to be a contender in the 2025-26 season.

Charlotte Hornets – 24.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Can LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller stay healthy for a Hornets team that would love to improve in the 2025-26 season? Charlotte has some young pieces, but it needs its best players on the floor more often than not to make a push for a play-in spot.

Brooklyn Nets – 21.5 (Over +100/Under -120)

Brooklyn appears to be taking another gap year, as it drafted five rookies in the first round and used most of its cap space to take on unwanted contracts.

Washington Wizards – 20.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

The Wizards have a lot of veterans – CJ McCollum, Marcus Smart, Khris Middleton – to pair with their young core. The question is whether or not Bub Carrington, Alex Sarr, or Tre Johnson is going to be good enough to build a team around going forward.

Utah Jazz – 18.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

Utah has the lowest win total projection since the 2014-15 Philadelphia 76ers. And, it has let most of its proven veterans go this offseason.

Ace Bailey should get all the shots he wants on a team that is clearly in a full rebuild.