NFL Conference Championship ATS Picks for Every Game (Bet Favorites to Cover on Championship Sunday)

There are just three NFL games left this season for us to watch and bet on, so let's make the most of them.

Favorites went undefeated in the Divisional Round, but went 3-1 when it came to covering the spread. The Chicago Bears, despite losing, were able to cover as 4.5-point underdogs to the Los Angeles Rams, losing by three points in overtime.

In this article, I'm going to give you my pick to cover the spread in both the AFC Championship and the NFC Championship on Sunday.

NFL Conference Championship Spread Picks

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Patriots vs. Broncos Spread Pick

Pick: Patriots -5.5 (-104)

There are plenty of smart people out there who think setting the Patriots as 5-point favorites is too big a reaction to the Bo Nix injury news. A lot of Nix's metrics didn't pop off the page, so is a 7-point swing justified with a capable Jarrett Stidham playing instead? I think it is, but it's not just because of the change at quarterback. There is something to be said about Nix's ability to be clutch and come up with plays in big moments, something Stidham doesn't have, but I'm backing New England more so because of what I've seen from the Patriots lately.

The New England defense may have figured something out. The argument against them heading into the postseason was that their defense was one of the worst in the NFL, but they completely shut down both the Chargers and Texans. Not only keeping them from scoring, but finding ways to force turnovers. In fact, they've allowed just 3.4 yards per carry in their past three games, the lowest in the NFL.

We already know the Patriots have a significant advantage offensively, and even moreso with Nix out, but if the New England defense can continue its momentum, there's a chance the Patriots run away with this one.

Rams vs. Seahawks Spread Pick

Pick: Seahawks -2.5 (-115)

This game is a matchup between the top two teams in DVOA, and just three points separated them in both previous meetings, with each team winning once. For the rubber match, I'm going to lay the 2.5 points on the Seahawks.

We haven't seen the best version of the Rams since their Week 15 win against the Lions. In fact, they finished the season on a 3-3 run with losses to the likes of the Panthers and Falcons. They also barely scraped both the Panthers and Bears in the first two rounds of the playoffs, teams that are far less talented than the Rams. They were outgained by Chicago, 5.1 yards per play to 4.4 yards per play.

Dating back to Week 13, the Rams' defense has ranked just 18th in opponent yards per play.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks have won eight straight games and looked as impressive as ever in the divisional round against the 49ers. Their defense leads the NFL in opponent EPA per play and is second in opponent success rate since Week 13.

Keep an eye on special teams, an area in which the Seahawks have a huge advantage over the Rams. They rank second in special teams DVOA, while the Rams rank 26th. If you don't think it matters, just remember the last time these two teams met when a punt return touchdown by the Seahawks sparked their comeback, resulting in a win.

The Seahawks have the momentum, the home-field advantage, and the better special teams. Give me Seattle to cover.

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