NFL MVP Odds: Caleb Williams Skyrockets, Justin Herbert Falling After Week 1; Josh Allen Remains Favorite

The 2026 NFL MVP race is underway!

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen entered the season as the favorite to win MVP and he kept himself in that spot with a crazy performance in a comeback win over the Houston Texans. However, a familiar face is right there with Allen, Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, through the first week of action.

He’s not the only player that is making a push to dethrone Allen in this market, as there are now seven players shorter than +1500 and four players at 10/1 or better to win MVP in 2026.

An MVP can’t be won – or lost – in one week, but there are players that put themselves in the conversation to win the award in 2026 right from the jump this season.

Caleb Williams is one of them, as he skyrocketed into the top three in the odds to win MVP after the Chicago Bears dropped 59 points on the Carolina Panthers on Sunday.

Biggest NFL MVP odds movement so far in Week 1 (via @CaesarsSports)

🏈 Caleb Williams: +1500 to +850
🏈 Josh Allen: +650 to +425
🏈 Justin Herbert: +1000 to +1800
🏈 Patrick Mahomes: +1200 to +1600
🏈 Brock Purdy +1900 to +1300
🏈 Matthew Stafford: +1400 to +1800
— Peter Dewey (@peterdewey2) September 14, 2026

Here’s a look at how Williams stacks up with the rest of the league, and which players are rising in the MVP conversation as we prepare for Week 2.

2026 NFL MVP Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Josh Allen: +500
Lamar Jackson: +700
Caleb Williams: +700
Joe Burrow: +1000
Brock Purdy: +1300
Patrick Mahomes: +1400
Dak Prescott: +1400
Trevor Lawrence: +1500
Matthew Stafford: +1700
Jordan Love: +1800
Justin Herbert: +2200
Jayden Daniels: +2200
Drake Maye: +2200
Jalen Hurts: +2500
Jared Goff: +3500
Bo Nix: +3500
Jaxson Dart: +4500
Baker Mayfield: +5500
Sam Darnold: +6000
Kyler Murray: +6000
C.J. Stroud: +6500
Bryce Young: +8000

Caleb Williams Skyrockets into Top 3 in NFL MVP Odds

Let’s start with the performance of the day from Caleb Williams and the Bears.

Chicago dropped an insane 59 points on the Panthers, riding two rushing scores (65 rushing yards) and two passing scores from the former No. 1 overall pick. After a lot was made of Williams’ efficiency as a passer last season, he completed 21 of his 29 passes for 269 yards in the Week 1 blowout.

Oddsmakers at most books bumped Williams way up in this market, and he went from +1200 to +700 at DraftKings with the win. If Chicago repeats to win the NFC North, Williams is going to have his name mentioned quite a bit in MVP talks.

Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson Post Massive Week 1 Stat Lines

Both Jackson and Allen led their teams to big wins in Week 1, with the Ravens blowing out Indianapolis and Buffalo coming back to defeat the No. 1 defense from last season (Houston) with a 36-point performance.

Here’s a look at how both quarterbacks fared on Sunday:

Allen Week 1: 20-of-29 passing, 334 yards, 2 TDs, 23 rush yards, 2 TDs

Jackson Week 1: 17-of-25 passing, 324 yards, TD, 40 rush yards, TD

As long as these two former MVPs stay healthy, they’re going to be in the mix to win this award.

Allen has a quick turnaround on Thursday Night Football in Week 2 against a Detroit team that allowed over 400 passing yards in Week 1, so he could add to his impressive passing numbers to open 2026.

Justin Herbert’s MVP Odds Tank After Upset Loss to Cardinals

Week 1 was a nightmare for Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers, as they were upset as 9.5-point favorites against the Arizona Cardinals.

Los Angeles mustered just 14 points in the loss, and Herbert finished with just 209 passing yards, one score and one pick.

Coming into the season, Herbert was a trendy pick to win MVP, but he dropped from +1000 to +2200 at DraftKings, one of the biggest adjustments for any player after Week 1. I haven’t been high on Herbert in the AFC West, and his opening game of the season has left a long way to go if he wants MVP consideration.

Brock Purdy’s MVP Odds Rising After Upset Win Over Rams

Brock Purdy was terrific in Week 1, completing 25 of his 34 passes for 205 yards and three scores in an upset win over the Rams.

Purdy has a good supporting cast once again, but the 49ers quarterback remains one of the steadiest players in the NFL. With Sam Darnold injured and the Rams already 0-1, the 49ers have a sneaky chance to take control of the NFC West early on in 2026.

Oddsmakers have taken notice, pushing Purdy into the top five in the odds to win MVP.

Honorable Mentions: Week 1 saw a ton of high-scoring performances, but Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars win’ over Cleveland may get lost in the shuffle since the Jags were massive favorites. Lawrence went from +2500 to +1500 to win MVP after throwing for four scores on Sunday. Jalen Hurts tossed three scores in the first game in the post-A.J. Brown era for Philly, leading his team to a win over Washington. I think Hurts is a little undervalued at this price behind Jordan Love, Justin Herbert and Drake Maye.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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