NFL MVP Odds: Patrick Mahomes, Trevor Lawrence Moving Up; Lamar Jackson Injury Impacts Market

Only three undefeated teams remain in the NFL through four weeks, and two quarterbacks have seen their odds to win MVP rise because they remain in that exclusive group.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (+650) and San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (+330) are in the top three in the odds to win the MVP this season behind favorite Josh Allen (+270).

Allen and the Buffalo Bills suffered their first loss of the 2026 season in Week 4, but the dual-threat quarterback did not see his odds drop week-over-week.

There are a few players that are steady risers in the MVP odds, including Purdy. He and Trevor Lawrence (+650) have both shot up the board over the last few weeks, and there are five players currently listed at 8/1 or shorter with just one game left in Week 4.

The MVP odds are going to change almost every week, and plenty of notable Week 4 performances caused moves in this market. Let’s examine what changed – and who has value – in the MVP odds ahead of Week 5.

2026 NFL MVP Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Josh Allen: +270
Brock Purdy: +330
Patrick Mahomes: +650
Trevor Lawrence: +650
Lamar Jackson: +800
Dak Prescott: +1500
Joe Burrow: +1600
Matthew Stafford: +3000
Jahmyr Gibbs: +3000
Tyler Shough: +3500
Drake Maye: +4000
Kenneth Walker III: +5000
Jordan Love: +5000
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: +5000
Jalen Hurts: +5000
Bryce Young: +5000
Caleb Williams: +5000
Jared Goff: +5500
Bo Nix: +6000
Derrick Henry: +7000
Kyler Murray: +9000

No other player is shorter than +10000 to win the MVP.

Patrick Mahomes Rising in Latest NFL MVP Odds

Mahomes and the Chiefs are 4-0 after holding off the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 4, and the star quarterback had a modest 225 passing yards and two scores in the win. The Chiefs’ Super Bowl odds are rising again, and Mahomes’ pedigree has certainly helped his MVP odds.

His teammate – Kenneth Walker III – has also seen his MVP odds jump, though it’s extremely hard for a running back to win this award.

There is a narrative building for Mahomes after Kansas City missed the playoffs in 2025, and Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton going down to injury will only put more of the star quarterback’s shoulders in the coming weeks.

Trevor Lawrence Makes Massive Jump in Latest MVP Odds

Jacksonville is off to a 3-1 start this season, and Trevor Lawrence is at the center of it, leading the team to wins over Cleveland (3-1), New England (2-2) and Cincy (2-2). The Jags have some key tiebreakers in the AFC, and Lawrence has picked up where he left off last season when he forced his way into the MVP race over the final eight weeks.

Through four weeks, Lawrence has completed over 66.7 percent of his passes and has eight touchdown passes to just two picks. He may not have the numbers that Allen does, but Lawrence has a pretty clear path to another AFC South division title, which could bolster his case.

Lawrence is up from +1400 to +650 to win MVP after week 5.

Lamar Jackson Injury Could Drop His MVP Odds

Lamar Jackson had a big first half against Tennessee on Sunday, throwing for 222 yards and two scores before exiting with an ankle injury.

Oddsmakers dropped Jackson from +600 to +800 to win MVP, and that could fall further if he’s set to miss time. The Ravens have really struggled without Jackson in the past, and the two-time MVP would be behind the eight ball when it comes to his season-long stats if he misses games.

The Ravens have gone from six-point favorites to 3.5-point favorites in Week 5, a sign that Jackson is at least questionable against the Atlanta Falcons.

Dak Prescott Makes MVP Statement in Week 4

Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys are now 2-2 and +144 to win the NFC East after an upset win over Houston in Week 4.

The Cowboys quarterback only threw for one score on Sunday, but he had 335 passing yards and is the leader of a top-five offense so far this season. If Dallas ends up winning the NFC East, Prescott could have a pretty interesting narrative building since the team missed the playoffs in 2025.

Plus, the Cowboys' shaky defense has allowed for a ton of shootouts where Dak can really pad his passing stats.

Josh Allen Remains MVP Favorite Despite Week 4 Loss

Allen threw a score and ran for a score in the loss to the Patriots, but he also tossed a horrible game-ending interception.

The passing numbers have been pretty average for Allen so far in 2026, and his MVP case would take a hit – like it did last year – if New England ends up ahead of Buffalo in the division. For now, it’s clear that oddsmakers aren’t worried about the scenario playing a role.

Honorable mention(s): The San Francisco 49ers and Brock Purdy (+330) are still undefeated, though Purdy didn’t have his best game against a tough Denver defense. Still, he’s closing the gap on Allen as the No. 2 option in this market. Drake Maye (+4000) re-entered the MVP conversation with a three-touchdown game in a win over the Bills, but he turned the ball over again in Week 4. The Patriots quarterback needs to play cleaner football, and a few more big statistical games, to really put himself in contention. Caleb Williams (+5000) did not play in Week 4, yet he remains one of the biggest liabilities for sportsbooks this week, multiple oddsmakers told Sports Illustrated. Kenneth Walker III (+5000) had yet another massive multi-score game, pushing Jahmyr Gibbs (+3000) for the best odds amongst non-quarterbacks in this market. Bryce Young (+5000) gets the last spot in Week 4 after lighting up Detroit on Sunday night. He's now for nine scores and just two picks this season, throwing for over 280 yards in every single game.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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