NFL Upset Predictions and Picks for Week 1 (Will Broncos Upset Chiefs on Monday Night Football?)

One of the best weeks of the NFL season for upsets is the opening slate of games. After a long offseason, we can all have our assumptions about how teams will perform, but there's bound to be some shocking results. Different rosters, different coaches, and Week 1 rust can contribute to plenty of upsets taking place across the league.

The SI Team is here to break down a few of their favorite underdog picks for the opening week of games. Let's take a look at this week's panel, and then each writer will back up their bets with reasons why they like the underdog.

Eva Geitheim, NFL Writer
Mike Kadlick, NFL Senior News Writer
Gilberto Manzano, NFL Staff Writer
Iain MacMillan, Senior Editor, Betting
Peter Dewey, Associate Managing Editor, Betting

All odds listed are via DraftKings Sportsbook

Eva Geitheim Week 1 Upset Pick

Denver Broncos (+130) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

I was frankly surprised to see the Chiefs favored over the Broncos to start Week 1. The Broncos proved to be one of the NFL’s best teams a season ago, and loaded up even more by trading for Jaylen Waddle. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are in transition mode as they shift their defensive line and secondary. They added running back Kenneth Walker III to the offense, but otherwise, their skill-position group on offense remains underwhelming. It’s never wise to underestimate Patrick Mahomes, but I do anticipate the Broncos pass rush will make life difficult for him and, in his first game back from his torn ACL, lead Denver to victory.

Mike Kadlick Week 1 Upset Pick

New York Jets (+105) vs. Tennessee Titans

The Jets have a really good, veteran-laden roster that includes the likes of Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, DeMario Davis, and Minkah Fitzpatrick. The issues lie in Aaron Glenn, who struggled in his less-than-ideal first year at the helm, and quarterback Geno Smith, who has had an up-and-down career as a whole. Still, New York has enough to upset the Titans on the road as they get their feet under them with new head coach Robert Saleh.

GIlberto Manzano Week 1 Upset Pick

Indianapolis Colts (+145) vs. Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens have gotten way too much hype for a team coming off a losing season and welcoming a new head coach. I’m not saying they’re going to miss the playoffs again, but it might take coach Jesse Minter some time to get acclimated to the new position. The Colts have continuity with coach Shane Steichen, who’s an excellent offensive play-caller. He’ll likely have a few surprises for Minter’s defense.

Iain MacMillan Week 1 Upset Pick

Carolina Panthers (+136) vs. Chicago Bears

My upset pick of the week is on the Carolina Panthers to beat the Chicago Bears outright. I have been pointing at the Bears as my No. 1 regression candidate all season, so it'd be hypocritical of me if I didn't pick them to lose in the opening week.

I have a lot of issues with this Bears team and their ability to replicate their season from a year ago. They went 7-4 in one-score games last season, and six of their wins came in games where they were down with two minutes or less to go. They also led the entire NFL in average turnover differential per game at +0.9. Those two factors alone are going to be extremely difficult to replicate, so they'll have to be a much better team to have another strong record.

Unfortunately, they lost one of their best receivers, DJ Moore, and their defense got inarguably worse. I also want to point out that Caleb Williams had some exciting late-game heroics last season, but he finished the year 20th in adjusted EPA per play and 29th in completion percentage over expected. Those are worrying, to say the least.

I'd be lying if I said I think the Panthers are the better team, but with them being set as home underdogs in an unpredictable Week 1, I'll take a chance on Carolina upsetting the team I most expect to take a step back in 2026.

Peter Dewey Week 1 Upset Pick

Denver Broncos (+130) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

There were only two teams in the NFL that finished last season in the top 10 in the league in EPA/Play on both offense and defense – Denver and New England.

This is a tough road date for the Broncos in Week 1, but I think they’re undervalued across multiple betting markets to start the season, sitting behind the Chiefs and Chargers in both the AFC West odds and the odds to win the Super Bowl.

Denver’s defense is one of the best in the NFL, and it’ll be interesting to see just how mobile Patrick Mahomes is in his first game back from a torn ACL. Plus, Denver has the best offensive line in the sport and a new weapon on the outside in Jaylen Waddle. I would’ve had the spread in this game close to 1.5 or 2, and I believe Denver has a chance to repeat as the No. 1 seed in the AFC. I’ll take Bo Nix and Co. to make a statement in primetime in Week 1.

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