NFL Upset Predictions and Picks for Week 3 (Will the Patriots Upset the Jaguars?)

There were plenty of upsets in Week 2 of the NFL season, and anyone who plays in a Survivor Pool is well aware of them. In the SI Upset Picks Roundtable, Iain MacMillan successfully predicted the Minnesota Vikings to upset the Chicago Bears, and Mike Kadlick nailed the Cincinnati Bengals upsetting the Houston Texans.

We're back again for another week of upset picks with plenty of games to target in Week 3.

Gilberto Manzano, NFL Staff Writer
Mitch Goldich, Senior Editor
Iain MacMillan, Senior Editor, Betting
Peter Dewey, Associate Managing Editor, Betting

All odds listed are via DraftKings Sportsbook

Gilberto Manzano Week 3 Upset Pick

New York Jets (+245) vs. Detroit Lions

I’ll eventually get one of these bold predictions right. Expect Aaron Glenn’s feisty team to look good when he returns to Detroit for his revenge game. The Jets’ defense has been drastically better this season after giving Cam Ward and Jordan Love plenty of trouble in the first two weeks. If the offense didn’t stall in the fourth quarter against Green Bay, New York would probably be 2–0 right now. And it seems like any offense can light up this terrible Lions’ defense. So, I’m rolling the dice again and putting my trust in Gang Green.

Mitch Goldich Week 3 Upset Pick

Tennessee Titans (+124) vs. New York Giants

I was tempted to go with the Cowboys over the Ravens in Brazil, but I’ll land here. It’s not a black-and-white rule to simply pick against a backup quarterback, but you can’t have much confidence in Jameis Winston after he went 11-for-27 for 111 yards and an interception in relief of Jaxson Dart on Monday. I know it’s all part of the Jameis Experience, and that everyone expects he’ll also have his share of big days over the course of the season, but he is now 32, and there’s no guarantee he’s still the guy who went 5–2 as a starter for the Saints in 2021.

The Giants will also need to prep Winston to take over on a short week after a Monday night game, made shorter by the long flight home from Los Angeles. Meanwhile, the Titans pushed the Eagles to the final seconds last week, and it’s a revenge game that will likely mean a lot to Titans OC Brian Daboll. I can already picture his players celebrating with him after a win.

Peter Dewy Week 3 Upset Pick

New England Patriots (+130) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Drake Maye and the New England Patriots have gotten off to a slow start offensively this season, ranking in the bottom 10 in the league in EPA/Play.

However, the Patriots' defense has been elite, ranking No. 2 in the league in EPA/Play and No. 4 in yards per play allowed. New England has allowed just 16 points across two games, and I think a small offensive step forward could lead the Patriots to a win in this matchup.

Jacksonville looked great in Week 1 against Cleveland, but it wilted down the stretch in Week 2 against a much better Denver team – blowing my upset pick from Week 2. New England and Denver are in a similar class, and I think the Patriots can take advantage of a Jaguars defense that is allowing 6.1 yards per play (29th in the NFL) so far this season.

This line opened with the Patriots as 2.5-point underdogs, yet it has moved in Jacksonville’s favor early in the week. I will gladly jump on the +140 price for New England in what feels like more of a toss-up game.

Iain MacMillan Week 3 Upset Pick

Tennessee Titans (+124) vs. New York Giants

It's hard to imagine laying points on this Giants team if Jaxson Dart isn't able to suit up. Their true colors showed on Monday night against the Rams, showcasing plenty of issues on both sides of the ball, none of which are bigger than Jameis Winston, who had all the bad traits of himself in his prime without any of the good traits.

I'll bet the Titans to pull off the upset and hope their strong showing against the Eagles last week is a sign of good things to come for this team.

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