NFL Upset Predictions and Picks for Week 9 (Bet Packers to Upset Patriots)

Bet the Packers as underdogs against the Patriots in Week 9. | Sports Illustrated

There were only three total upsets in the entire NFL Week 8 slate, but we managed to nail one of them in last week's edition of our upset roundtable. Yours truly correctly predicted the Chicago Bears to take down the Seattle Seahawks on Monday Night Football.

We move on to Week 9 and we're hoping for more upsets during this weekend's action.

• Gilberto Manzano, NFL Staff Writer
• Iain MacMillan, Senior Editor, Betting
• Peter Dewey, Associate Managing Editor, Betting

All odds listed are via DraftKings Sportsbook

Gilberto Manzano Week 9 Upset Pick

Minnesota Vikings (+150) vs. Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen has a history of struggling against defenses as aggressive as the one Brian Flores operates. Allen did finally get by the Texans in Week 1, but that defense has drastically regressed this season. The Vikings’ defense has formed into what many expected to see out of the Texans in 2026. Minnesota is No. 1 in points allowed (13.3) and No. 2 in total defense (271.6). Yes, I do worry about Minnesota’s poor offense, but maybe Kyler Murray turns it around against the Bills’ poor defense, which is allowing 25.9 points per game. This will come down to Allen against the Vikings’ vaunted defense.

Peter Dewey Week 9 Upset Pick

Green Bay Packers (+140) vs. New England Patriots

The Green Bay Packers can’t run the ball this season, averaging just 2.9 yards per carry, but that may not matter on the road against the New England Patriots in Week 9.

New England is 20th in the league in EPA/Pass and eighth in EPA/Rush on defense, so the Packers and Jordan Love are likely going to lean on their elite passing game on Sunday. The Pack are coming off a mini-bye after playing on Thursday against Carolina, and they’ve won four of their last five games after a 1-2 start.

Meanwhile, New England is extremely banged up at receiver and was in a dogfight against the lowly Miami Dolphins in Week 8 before pulling away in the second half. The Pats have struggled a bit against elite competition this season, losing to Seattle, Jacksonville, and Chicago.

Will we see a similar result against Green Bay? The Packers are quietly fifth in the NFL in EPA/Play on defense, and Love has been playing at a high level all season long. There aren’t a ton of great upset spots this week, but Green Bay’s recent form is intriguing against a banged-up New England squad.

Iain MacMillan Week 9 Upset Pick

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+240) vs. Chicago Bears

You can win a lot of games in the National Football League if you can run the ball effectively and play elite defense, and that's exactly what the Buccaneers have been doing. In fact, they shut the Falcons out last week without completing a single pass.

They now enter this week ranked inside the top seven in every rushing metric, second in opponent EPA per play, and third in opponent success rate. We don't currently know what sort of form Baker Mayfield is in, but if he's in peak form when the Bucs need him to take to the air, Tampa Bay is going to be an extremely dangerous team.

I have little bad to say about the Bears, who have proven me wrong about my preseason evaluation of them. What I do think is that this is a sell-high spot on a short week after an emotional win on Monday Night Football.

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