NFL Week 1 Best Bets (Predictions for Ravens vs. Colts, Broncos vs. Chiefs on Monday Night)

We're baaaaaaaaaack!

The 2026 NFL season is upon us, and we've already had a pair of games featuring playoff teams from last season on Wednesday and Thursday.

A little taste of what's to come this weekend is always great, and the SI Betting team of Iain MacMillan and Peter Dewey is back for another season with our NFL Best Bets. The premise is simple:

We choose our favorite bet for Sunday -- or Monday -- each week, and our awesome readers get a chance to ride with us, or fade us. Plus, we'll keep track of our record here to see how we fare throughout the season. Sound fun?

This week, we're eyeing the Baltimore Ravens vs. Indianapolis Colts clash on Sunday and the Monday Night Football showdown between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs. With 14 games to choose from, the possibilities are endless in Week 1, but we're aiming to deliver a pair of winners to start the campaign.

So, let us take you right to the picks, complete with odds from the best NFL betting sites.

NFL Best Bets for Week 1

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook.

Denver Broncos +3 (-120) vs. Kansas City Chiefs -- Peter Dewey
Baltimore Raves vs. Indianapolis Colts UNDER 48.5 (-115) -- Iain MacMillan

Denver Broncos +3 (-120) vs. Kansas City Chiefs -- Peter Dewey

I think there’s a chance we could see an upset on Monday Night Football between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs.

The Broncos finished with the No. 1 seed in the AFC last season, and they dominated as underdogs, covering the spread in five games of six games (they pushed in the sixth).

There were only two teams in the NFL that finished last season in the top 10 in the league in EPA/Play on both offense and defense – Denver and New England. That’s pretty elite company, and I think the Broncos may be a little undervalued heading into this season.

Denver is sitting behind the Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers in both the AFC West odds and the odds to win the Super Bowl. That seems like an overreaction when the Broncos returned most of their key weapons on both sides of the ball and added Jaylen Waddle on offense.

Last season, Denver’s defense was one of the best in the NFL and it excels at getting pressure on the quarterback. Denver was seventh in EPA/Play and first in success rate in the 2025 season. I think it'll be interesting to see just how mobile Patrick Mahomes is in his first game back from a torn ACL.

The Broncos have a better offensive line than the Chiefs, and I’m not sold on Mahomes outplaying Bo Nix. Denver beat Kansas City with Mahomes in the lineup last year, and Nix is 3-1 against the Chiefs all time.

I’ll gladly take the three points on Monday night.

Baltimore Raves vs. Indianapolis Colts UNDER 48.5 (-115) -- Iain MacMillan

I'm selling my Baltimore Ravens stock heading into this season. Derrick Henry is another year older and Lamar Jackson looked like a shell of himself when he was healthy last season. On top of that, the interior of their offensive line as concerning and they still don't have a legitimate No. 2 option at wide receiver.

The Colts' offense also has some question marks heading into this season, primarily Daniel Jones who is coming off a season-ending injury.

I expect both defenses to start hot, especially the Ravens' unit, which has a defensive guru Jesse Minter at head coach. With the total in the high 40s, I'm taking the UNDER.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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