NFL Week 1 Survivor Pool Picks (Jaguars, AFC West Team Highlight Top Predictions)

Football is back, and so are the always exciting Survivor Pools that seem easy until there’s a big upset.

In Survivor, players are asked to pick one winning team each week, but they are prohibited from taking the team again during the season. Since Week 1 of the 2026 season begins with the New England Patriots taking on the Seattle Seahawks on Wednesday, Survivor picks have to be in earlier than usual this week.

So, which team is the best to take?

All season long, the SI Betting team will be sharing our favorite Survivor Picks to help our readers make a choice every week. This is the third season that senior editor Iain MacMillan and Associate Managing Editor Peter Dewey have been making these picks, and even if they lose in their respective pools, they’ll still give weekly advice to those still pushing on.

Survivor strategy is more than just picking the biggest favorite each week. There are ways to save teams for favorable matchups down the stretch of the season while also taking some risk to potentially benefit from a big upset.

In Week 1 of the 2026 season, there are a few big favorites, including one double-digit favorite in the Los Angeles Chargers (facing the Arizona Cardinals).

Here’s a look at where the SI Betting team is going for Survivor in Week 1.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

NFL Week 1 Survivor Pool Picks

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Los Angeles Chargers are going to be a popular pick this week, but there are a few other spots where I don’t mind using Los Angeles since it has a second-place schedule and matchups with Las Vegas (twice) and Miami later on in the season.

The same can’t be said for the Jacksonville Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence.

After a 13-4 season in 2025, the Jags now play a tough first-place schedule with seven games against squads that made the playoffs last season. Outside of this Week 1 matchup with the Cleveland Browns, the only definite spots where I’d consider this team are their two matchups with the Tennessee Titans.

That’s part of the strategy in Survivor – taking a team that you believe will win but also may not be someone you need down the line.

Jacksonville is a massive 8.5-point favorite in Week 1, a line that moved when Deshaun Watson was named the starter for Cleveland.

“The only one we saw somewhat significant move was Jags-Browns,” Ty Gour Sports Trader at Fanatics Sportsbook told Sports Illustrated. “That moved from 7.5 to 8.5, and that seemed to happen in tune with the news that Deshaun Watson is going to be the QB1. And then his subsequent preseason performance.”

Watson has been a disaster with the Browns, winning just nine of his 19 starts while throwing 12 picks in those games. Cleveland was 1-6 in the 2024 season when he started.

I think the loss of Myles Garrett is a massive blow for a Cleveland defense that was fourth in the league in EPA/Play last season. Jared Verse is a strong replacement, but Garrett set the sack record and is an absolute game-wrecker on defense.

If the Browns take a step back on that side of the ball, I don’t know how anyone could trust Watson to lead them to a road win in this game. Cleveland was just 2-6 against the spread on the road last season while the Jaguars covered in seven of their nine home games.

There’s certainly a chance the Jags regress from last year’s 13-4 finish, but I think they’ll be able to win outright at home in Week 1. – Peter Dewey

Las Vegas Raiders Raiders

Taking a bad team in the first week of a Survivor Pool is risky, but if you pull it off you're in a much better position after Week 1 compared to everyone else in the league who took big favorites, so I'm going to try to do exactly that this season.

Fading the Miami Dolphins every week could also be a strong strategy in this season, as their roster is arguably the worst in the NFL after stripping it to its bones this past offseason.

Meanwhile, the Las Vegas Raiders certainly aren't a playoff team, but they're now a couple of years into their rebuild and they have legitimate pieces like Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers.

Kirk Cousins is past his prime, but he's more than a serviceable quarterback for this Week 1 game. Let's take a chance on the Raiders taking care of business in Week 1. – Iain MacMillan

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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