Sportsbook Insiders: Everything to Know from Oddsmakers Heading into NFL Week 1

Getting caught up from an NFL offseason can be exhausting, especially when you’re preparing to wager on some of the action in Week 1 or even in the futures market, ahead of Wednesday’s season opener between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks.

There has been a lot of player movement, including the Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett heading to the now Super Bowl favorite Los Angeles Rams.

Plus, the Week 1 odds have changed in several games since lines opened up this summer.

To keep you up to pace with everything in the sports betting world during the NFL season, the Sports Illustrated Betting team will be speaking to oddsmakers across several sportsbooks to gain unique insights to help bettors prepare for each weekend, futures markets, and much more – including our story from earlier this week about which quarterbacks are worth the most to the spread ahead of Week 1.

Here’s the first edition of our “notebook” full of insights from oddsmakers.

Week 1 Odds Movement – Several Changes Since the Summer

Lookahead lines for Week 1 are usually posted shortly after the NFL releases its schedule, leaving a ton of time for things to change due to injuries, suspensions, transactions or just the amount of action on a certain game.

Here’s a few matchups that have seen movement in the Week 1 slate.

Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings

Packers, they were 1.5, now the Vikings are 1.5. We opened based on our power ratings. Bettors think the Vikings are initially better than we do to start the season. And also Kyler Murray, if you look back, he's played some pretty respectable games for the opening game of the season when he was a starter.” – Johnny Avello, Director of Race and Sports Operations for DraftKings Sportsbook

“The Packers have been trending downwards for their Week 1 matchup against the Vikings. A combination of injuries and problems for the Packers, and Kyler Murray winning the starting job, resulted in the line moving.” – Joey Feazel, Head of Football at Caesars Sportsbook

Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers – we opened 11.5, they're down to 10.5. I don't know, it's just too high, I guess. Too high for Week 1.” – Johnny Avello, Director of Race and Sports Operations for DraftKings Sportsbook

Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs

“We assumed that Mahomes was going to be good to go from the get-go until we heard otherwise. And we haven't heard anything to say he has been limited, or the offense will change at all, so we priced him in from the get-go.” – Ty Gour Sports Trader at Fanatics Sportsbook

San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams

“Not a lot of significant line movement at this time, most would be driven by injury news to quarterbacks. But the Rams did move from -2.5 to -3.5 vs. the 49ers. Combo of the 49ers dealing with injuries to WR/TE and the Rams trading for Myles Garrett and adding Donald.” – Christian Cipollini, Senior Trading Manager, BetMGM

Cleveland Browns vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

“The only one we saw somewhat significant move was Jags-Browns. That moved from 7.5 to 8.5, and that seemed to happen in tune with the news that Deshaun Watson is going to be the QB1. And then his subsequent preseason performance.” – Ty Gour Sports Trader at Fanatics Sportsbook

New York Jets vs. Tennessee Titans

“The Titans opened up 3.5 over the Jets. That's now 1.5. Maybe the bettors see the Titans aren't that much better than the Jets. So, they took anything over 3 is, you know, good value. I think they believe that 3.5 was good value, but they also thought the 3 was good value. So, we've taken money on the Jets at +3.5, +3, and now, sitting at the 1.5.” – Johnny Avello, Director of Race and Sports Operations for DraftKings Sportsbook

Chicago Bears vs. Carolina Panthers

“One of the totals that moved: the Bears and Panthers, 44.5, now it's up to 47.5. When you look at the Bears, they were ranked pretty high in scoring last year. I think they were ranked in their top 10. They averaged about 25 points a game. I think the reason for this move, though, is when you look at the Bears' turnover ratio last year, it was like plus-22, and the bettors are kind of looking for that to continue.” – Johnny Avello, Director of Race and Sports Operations for DraftKings Sportsbook

Aaron Donald Impact on Rams, Rest of NFC

One of the biggest moves of the offseason was Aaron Donald’s decision to return to the Los Angeles Rams. It had been rumored for weeks since he started working out with the team, but Donald didn’t officially sign until late August.

Fanatics shared with Sports Illustrated that their price was moved once he showed up at camp, as the Rams dropped from +825 all the way down to +500 to win the Super Bowl.

“We didn't wait for the signing, there was quite a lot of action coming in as soon as it was announced that he was even just hanging around the practice field,” Gour said.

Donald’s decision impacted multiple books and how they priced the Rams in the futures market and other teams in the NFC.

“Usually, the move is announced, and then, we make an adjustment on the odds,” Avello told Sports Illustrated. “But the actual odds – the money was coming in the day before he was signed. We had him at +550. We were anticipating that he was going to go to the Rams. We knew that he was in good shape from what we read and what we heard. So we had an accumulation of money the day before, and we moved to 5/1 to win the Super Bowl.

"Now, some other adjustments that kind of affect teams that play with the Rams. We've adjusted the Seahawks from +1100 to +1200 because when you lower somebody, you have to raise somebody up. You have to keep your book kind of balanced. The 49ers went from +1800 to +1900. Cards went from +35000 to +50000. “In the division, the Rams were +105, they went to -105. Seahawks were +185, went to +215. And the 49ers were +285, went to +305, and then Cards, +7500 to +10000. So, when that happens, a team that's that low in odds that 50 points is a lot. We have to make adjustments across the board, not on the Super Bowl, but on everything else that they're involved in.”

While DraftKings mainly adjusted teams in the Rams’ division, the moves in the NFC were even more widespread for Caesars.

“It certainly changes how we price the NFC,” Feazel said. “With the Rams at 5/1 to win the NFC, other teams like the Seahawks, 49ers and Lions have fallen in odds to win the conference or even the Super Bowl.”

FanDuel has a slightly different strategy on pricing Donald, especially since they expected the Rams to slowly integrate him early in the season.

“"Aaron Donald's signing definitely impacts the prices of Rams futures, particularly on their upside in the playoffs,” a FanDuel trader told Sports Illustrated. “We believe they are going to slow roll Donald back, with the goal of having him be fresh and 100% healthy for the stretch run at the end of the season. In terms of futures, the Rams play the Seahawks two out of the last three games of the season, and we believe Donald impacts the projected spread in those games and in any of their playoff games much more than he impacts any games in the first six or so weeks of the season. It doesn't really affect how we price other teams in the NFC directly, it only affects their future prices in relation to the Rams getting better."

The Rams adding Donald has also led to an influx of bets at BetMGM, even though they were already the favorite to win the Super Bowl.

“Since signing Donald, 22% of bets (most) and 30% of money (most) is on the Rams to win the Super Bowl,” Cipollini said.

Biggest Super Bowl Wagers Placed So Far

$10,000 to win $200,000 on Broncos +2000 to win Super Bowl – BetMGM
$10,000 to win $160,000 on Cowboys +1600 to win NFC Championship – Bet MGM
$10,000 to win $160,000 on Chargers +1600 to win Super Bowl – BetMGM
$5,000 to win $330,000 on Giants +6600 to win Super Bowl – BetMGM

“We took a wager on the Rams for $70k at +575 to win over $400k.” – Joey Feazel, Head of Football at Caesars Sportsbook

“The most notable being $25,000 bet on the Bills, that was placed at 14 to 1, and that was placed on Aug. 6, so right when preseason started. We actually got a flurry of $25,000 bets right when preseason started and four of them landed on the Bills at various price points, the 14/1 being the longest. We've also had action on the Rams and the Bears for that stake as well.” – Ty Gour Sports Trader at Fanatics Sportsbook

“We've actually taken – well, we have one good-sized bet on a team and that would be the Bills. We've taken a $105,000 bet on the Bills at 10/1. You know, that pays out about $1,050,000. But um, I mentioned the Giants were a team that just they don't stop betting. That's one of our bigger liabilities. 30k on the Giants at 80/1, that pays 2.4 million. So that's the one bet that has the biggest liability; the other one is the biggest bet so far. And there'll be plenty because, you know, these futures will be up all season long, and actually when we get closer to when we see teams are in the playoffs, there's actually guys unload six-figure bets at that time.” – Johnny Avello, Director of Race and Sports Operations for DraftKings Sportsbook

Giants Headline Biggest Super Bowl Liabilities

The New York Giants happen to be the biggest Super Bowl liability at both DraftKings and Fanatics entering the season with bettors expecting a major step forward with John Harbaugh taking over as the franchise’s head coach.

“Yeah, so for Super Bowl, our biggest liability is actually the Giants. They sit at 75/1 on our book. And we're definitely seeing a lot of belief in Big Blue just with the second year of Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo and perhaps some belief in the Harbaugh-coached offense as well. And then for us after that, it's pretty standard. Bills are our second-highest liability, and they're sitting at 9/1 right now. And the Bears are our third-highest liability, and they're sitting at 24/1 on our book.” – Ty Gour Sports Trader at Fanatics Sportsbook

That would be your New York Giants. I'm a Giants fan, so I'm kind of excited about the Giants' new coach. I realize it's going to take some time, so I'm maybe not as optimistic as some of the bettors are. They started betting this team early because we put the odds up as soon as the Super Bowl – previous year's Super Bowl is over, they just have not stopped betting them. And then, you know, with the addition of the new coach, they love it.” – Johnny Avello, Director of Race and Sports Operations for DraftKings Sportsbook

The Las Vegas Raiders happen to be the biggest liability at both Caesars and BetMGM, with Fernando Mendoza – the No. 1 overall pick – expected to see some playing time in 2026.

“Currently, the Raiders at 125-1 are the biggest liability,” Feazel said. “The addition of Klint Kubiak and Fernando Mendoza has our home base here in Nevada excited for this team's future.”

Saquon Barkley, Caleb Williams Are Biggest MVP Liabilities

There are several players that are the biggest liabilities to win MVP this season with Caleb Williams (DraftKings) and Saquon Barkley (BetMGM) as the most notable.

A couple of long shot quarterbacks – Kyler Murray (Fanatics) and Tyler Shough (Caesars) – are also major liabilities entering Week 1. Williams has by far the best consensus odds of this group after a strong sophomore season.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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