NFL Week 5 Best Bets (Predictions for Lions vs. Cardinals Total, Browns vs. Jets on Sunday)

It only took four weeks, but the SI Betting team is coming off a sweep in our NFL Best Bets, and now it's time to build on that in a loaded Week 5.

There are a bunch of great games on Sunday, including an NFC West battle between the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks, and the week wraps up with a marquee matchup on Monday between the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams.

So, like we do every week,, the SI Betting team of Iain MacMillan and Peter Dewey is sharing their NFL Best Bets for Week 5. The goal of this column is simple:

We choose our favorite bet for Sunday or Monday, and our awesome readers get a chance to ride with us, or fade us. Plus, we'll keep track of our record here to see how we fare throughout the season.

After winning just one of our first six bets in the 2026 season (not ideal) a pair of underdogs came through for us in Week 4 for a perfect 2-0 showing.

MacMillan called the New England Patriots' upset over Buffalo, taking Drake Maye and Co. to cover while Dewey nailed an underdog bet on the Atlanta Falcons on Monday night.

That's great, but we're not here to celebrate our wins for too long. There's a long NFL season ahead, and Week 5 presents plenty of betting opportunities with only two teams (Carolina and Kansas City) on the bye.

MacMillan has picked every single game in his Road to 272 column this week, so if we don't hit the game you want to bet on in this story, make sure to check out his column (which he writes every week).

In Week 5, we're targeting an underdog in the early-afternoon slate on Sunday as well as a total later on in the day.

Here's a complete breakdown of each pick!

NFL Best Bets for Week 5

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Cleveland Browns +2.5 (-112) vs. New York Jets -- Peter Dewey
Detroit Lions vs. Arizona Cardinals OVER 54.5 (-108) -- Iain MacMillan

Cleveland Browns +2.5 (-112) vs. New York Jets – Peter Dewey

The New York Jets won in Week 1 against the Tennessee Titans, but they have no business being favored against anyone right now, not even the Cleveland Browns.

I didn’t think that the Browns and Deshaun Watson would be a team that I’m targeting in the 2026 season, but they’re 3-1 and have looked really solid over their last few games, beating Tampa Bay, Carolina and Pittsburgh. So, why not get 2.5 points with them on Sunday against a 1-3 Jets team?

New York couldn’t slow down Tyson Bagent and the Chicago Bears in Week 4, allowing them to possess the ball for nearly 43 minutes in a loss. Since they beat the Titans in Week 1, the Jets have dropped three games in a row and their offense is extremely banged up, with Breece Hall, Omar Cooper Jr., Mason Taylor and Adonai Mitchell all missing Week 4.

Geno Smith simply isn’t good enough to elevate a shaky supporting cast, and the Jets are a below average defense, ranking 15th in EPA/Play and 29th in success rate despite being a top-10 team in yards per play allowed.

This is a bet on Watson, who has looked more like the quarterback he was in Houston than he ever has in Cleveland. He’s thrown for five scores and just one pick in his last three games and ranks 15th amongst quarterbacks with at least 50 plays in 2026 in success rate.

The Browns may not be a playoff team, but I’ll gladly take the points since I believe the wrong team is favored on Sunday.

Detroit Lions vs. Arizona Cardinals OVER 54.5 (-108) – Iain MacMillan

Until Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph return to the Lions' defense, Detroit is going to give up points in bunches.

Your local high school team would be able to put up 24-plus points against this squad, let alone the Cardinals' offense. Arizona may not be great overall, but they have enough offensive weapons to march down the field in this game.

We know the Lions' offense is going to put up points. They're sixth in EPA per play and third in success rate, and they still have some of the best offensive players in the league in Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs. They now get to face a Cardinals' defense that's a bottom 10 unit in the league.

54.5 seems like a lot of points, but I still have plenty of confidence the game total is going to soar over that number.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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