NFL Week 4 Best Bets (Predictions for Patriots vs. Bills, Falcons vs. Saints on Monday Night)

NFL fans are in for a treat in Week 4 of the 2026 season, as there are several matchups that you won't want to miss on Sunday.

Top NFL Week 4 Games

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals
Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles
Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders
Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers

With so many games featuring teams with playoff expectations, there are a lot of close spreads to choose from when betting on this week's action.

All season long, the SI Betting team of Iain MacMillan and Peter Dewey will share our NFL Best Bets for each week. The premise is simple:

We choose our favorite bet for Sunday or Monday, and our awesome readers get a chance to ride with us, or fade us. Plus, we'll keep track of our record here to see how we fare throughout the season.

Week 3 was a rough one for our team, as the New England Patriots didn't even compete in a loss to Jacksonville and MacMillan's OVER bet in the Cleveland-Carolina matchup came up just short.

You win some, you lose some. The bright side is that we still have a long NFL season to go, and plenty of games to consider in Week 4.

There are 15 different games to choose from this week, so make sure to check out Iain's Road to 272 (where he bets on every game, every week) if you want a pick for games that aren't mentioned here.

Now, let's channel a bounce-back showing for the remaining Week 4 action.

NFL Best Bets for Week 4

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Atlanta Falcons +3 (-118) vs. New Orleans Saints -- Peter Dewey
New England Patriots +6.5 (+100) vs. Buffalo Bills -- Iain MacMillan

Atlanta Falcons +3 (-118) vs. New Orleans Saints – Peter Dewey

The Atlanta Falcons’ 0-2 start scared a lot of people away (and rightfully so), but the offense looked competent on Thursday night in Week 3 against the Green Bay Packers with Michael Penix Jr. under center.

Now, Atlanta takes on a New Orleans team that is 26th in EPA/Play and 30th in success rate on the defensive side of the ball in 2026. I think that sets up well for potential upset in this divisional matchups, especially since I don’t think any of the teams in the NFC South are that good.

The Saints’ upset win over Baltimore vaulted them to the top of the NFC South odds, but they then allowed 35 points in a home loss to Las Vegas in Week 3, allowing Kirk Cousins to torch them with Brock Bowers (10 catches for 116 yards and a score).

Penix doesn’t have to be great to move the ball, and the fact that he has Bijan Robinson to lean on in the backfield should help the former first-round pick avoid doing too much on Monday.

The Atlanta defense has quietly been one of the best units in the league, ranking in the top 10 in yards per play allowed, success rate and EPA/Play. If Penix can just get the ball to Robinson and Drake London like he did in Week 3, I think the Falcons may be the better team in this matchup. I’ll gladly take the points on Monday, especially since the Saints have given up over 30 points in two of their three games.

New England Patriots +6.5 (+100) vs. Buffalo Bills – Iain MacMillan

The Buffalo Bills' offense has been red-hot to start the season, but their defense is going to cost them sooner rather than lately.

You may not know it based on their 3-0 record, but the Buffalo defense currently ranks 25th in opponent EPA per play, 27th in opponent success rate, and 19th in opponent yards per play, giving up 5.4 yards per snap.

On the other sideline, I think it's time to buy-low on the New England Patriots. Regression was inevitable for them this season, but they've had some poor offensive luck and I expect them to right the ship starting this week.

They enter the week a respectable ninth in Net Yards per Play at +0.3. I'll take the points with New England.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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