NHL First-Round Series Odds and Predictions: Bet Flyers to Win Battle of Pennsylvania

The NHL Playoffs are here! All eight first round series are set and the action is scheduled to begin on Saturday.

Let's take a look at the series odds and my prediction for each matchup.

All odds listed in this article are via FanDuel Sportsbook

NHL Playoff Series Odds and Predictions

Penguins vs. Flyers Series Odds

Penguins -140
Flyers +116

Penguins vs. Flyers Series Prediction

I'm going to back the Flyers as underdogs in the battle of Pennsylvania. The Flyers have been the better team since the Olympic break in February, ranking eighth in the NHL in expected goal differential. The Penguins are the opposite, having played their best hockey in the first half of the season, they're now 23rd in expected goal differential since the Olympics.

What I like the most about the Flyers is how they've locked things up defensively. They're now first in expected goals against while allowing the second-fewest high-danger scoring chances dating back to the Olympics. That will go a long way in contributing to postseason wins.

Pick: Flyers (+116) in Five (+850)

Sabres vs. Bruins Series Odds

Sabres -184
Bruins +152

Sabres vs. Bruins Series Prediction

In my opinion, the Bruins simply aren't a playoff caliber team. They're 24th in the NHL in expected goals percentage since the Olympic break, and they're in the bottom half of the league in both CORSI% and FENWICK% in the same time frame. They're shooting and goaltending in that stretch has also been average at best.

The Sabres continue to surprise people, but they have the underlying metrics to back up their record. I'll back them as favorites against Boston.

Pick: Sabres (-184) in Five (+440)

Hurricanes vs. Senators Series Odds

Hurricanes -172
Senators +142

Hurricanes vs. Senators Series Prediction

Another year, another NHL Playoffs, where the Carolina Hurricanes seem poised to go on a deep run, but will likely disappoint. Carolina once again led the NHL in several advanced metrics, but I've fallen for this trap before, and I won't do it again. There is something about their style of play that looks great from an analytics perspective, but it doesn't translate to postseason play.

Not only that, but the Senators have matched them in a lot of underlying metrics lately, including ranking just two spots behind the Canes in expected goal differential.

I think the odds should be closer than they are. I'll take the Sens to pull off the sizable upset.

Pick: Senators (+142) in Seven (+500)

Lightning vs. Canadiens Series Odds

Lightning -260
Canadiens +210

Lightning vs. Canadiens Series Prediction

The Montreal Canadiens have gotten by this season largely due to great shooting and goaltending, something that typically isn't sustainable when you have to beat teams in a best-of-seven series in the playoffs. The Habs rank fourth in PDO (shooting percentage + save percentage) since the Olympic break, but now they have to face a Lightning team that can match them in those areas, while also playing better between the blue lines.

Pick: Lightning (-260) in Seven (+350)

Stars vs. Wild Series Odds

Stars -118
Wild -102

Stars vs. Wild Series Prediction

I think this series is a true coin flip, so I'm going to back the side that's set as a slight underdog. The Wild have a small advantage in advanced metrics like CORSI% and expected goals, but the Stars have a higher shooting percentage. So, which will prove more important, the ability to create chances or the ability to capitalize on them?

We'll find out over the next two weeks, but based on the odds, I'll take a shot on a Minnesota team that seems to be superior between the blue lines.

Pick: Wild -102 in Seven (+470)

Golden Knights vs. Mammoth Odds

Golden Knights -188
Mammoth +155

Golden Knights vs. Mammoth Prediction

There's something to be said for John Tortorella taking over as the head coach of the Vegas Golden Knights late in the season. I don't think he's a good head coach to be leading a team in the long term, but he's the perfect coach that can step in and give a much-needed boost to an underperforming team that's loaded with talent.

The Golden Knights now rank second in the NHL in expected goal differential since the Olympic break, while the Mammoth are 17th. Utah doesn't have the skill to hang with Vegas in this series.

Pick: Golden Knights (-188) in Four (+950)

Avalanche vs. Kings Odds

Avalanche -530
Kings +390

Avalanche vs. Kings Prediction

The Avalanche are Stanley Cup favorites for good reason, and I think they're rightfully big favorites in this series and will likely win. With that being said, we as bettors have to consider the odds before placing a wager, and if we're talking about which side has the edge, I do think there's some value on the Kings at +390.

The Kings have played great defensive hockey of late, ranking fifth in expected goals against since the Olympic break. They'll have to get great goaltending and some sharp-shooting, but if they can drag these games into defensive battles, there is a path to them upsetting Colorado.

Pick: Kings (+390) in Seven (+950)

Oilers vs. Ducks Odds

Oilers -240
Ducks +195

Oilers vs. Ducks Prediction

The Ducks are a great young team, and this is a great step forward for the organization. Unfortunately, they have to now face an experienced Oilers team led by the best hockey player on the planet. Not only that, but Edmonton may have found itself a goalie as Connor Ingram has played extremely well for them in net of late. He had a .902 save percentage in 11 starts in March and then a .907 save percentage this month. That's good enough to let the Oilers' high-powered offense take care of the rest.

Pick: Oilers (-240) in Five (+380)

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