Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Wednesday, Nov. 11

The Denver Nuggets are off to a bit of a slow start in the 2026-27 season, winning just five of their first nine games while ranking 17th in the league in net rating.

Yet, they are favored on the road on Wednesday night against the Memphis Grizzlies and No. 3 overall pick Cameron Boozer.

Memphis started the season with a 6-0 run, but it is just 1-3 since, knocking off the Toronto Raptors on Monday night to snap a three-game skid. The Grizzlies are 10th in net rating, 10th in offensive rating and seventh in defensive rating, and they’ve had several players step up and play bigger roles after moving on from the core of Jaren Jackson Jr., Ja Morant and Desmond Bane over the last few seasons.

Memphis has also covered the spread in seven of 10 games, making it an interesting target as a home dog on Wednesday night.

Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets came up short on the road against Houston on Monday, and they haven’t exactly beaten many good teams in the 2026-27 season. Are the Nuggets in danger of falling back to .500 in this Western Conference clash.

Let’s examine the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction as Memphis looks to defend its home floor on Nov. 11.

Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Nuggets -3.5 (-114)
Grizzlies +3.5 (-106)

Moneyline

Nuggets: -167
Grizzlies: +140

Total

230.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Nuggets vs. Grizzlies How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, Nov. 11
Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
Venue: FedExForum
How to Watch (TV): Altitude, DAZN (MEM), NBA League Pass
Nuggets record: 5-4
Grizzlies record: 7-3

Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Injury Reports

Nuggets Injury Report

Julian Strawther – out

Grizzlies Injury Report

Karim Lopez – out
Jahmai Mashack – questionable
Scotty Pippen Jr. – out
Quinten Post – out
Richie Saunders – out
Isaiah Stewart – questionable

Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Best NBA Prop Bet

Grizzlies Best NBA Prop Bet

Cameron Boozer OVER 8.5 Rebounds (-139)

In today’s best NBA props column for SI Betting, I shared why I like Boozer to have a big game on the glass:

No. 3 overall pick Cameron Boozer is off to a strong start in his rookie season even though he’s struggling to shoot the ball (36.4 percent from the field, 29.0 percent from 3).

I’m buying Boozer on the glass on Wednesday against a Denver Nuggets team that is surprisingly bad on the boards to open the season. Denver is just 17th in rebound percentage and 18th in opponent rebounds per game, a rare sight from a Nikola Jokic-led team.

Boozer has been an important piece on the glass for the Memphis Grizzlies, averaging 9.7 rebounds on 15.8 rebound chances per game. He is pulling down over 61 percent of the rebound chances he sees, and Boozer has at least nine boards in seven of his 10 games.

With this prop line set well below his season average, I don’t mind Boozer at home on Wednesday night.

Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Prediction and Pick

Denver has covered the spread in just four games this season, and the Nuggets are currently behind the Grizzlies in net rating, defensive rating and offensive rating.

Denver is just 15th in the league in offense, which is pretty shocking for any Jokic-led team. Despite a fairly average schedule to open the season, Denver has struggled against top-tier teams, losing to Houston, Portland, OKC and Golden State.

While I’m not sure that Memphis is going to be a playoff team in the West, the Grizzlies are looking a lot better than initially expected in the 2026-27 season. Memphis has pulled off two wins as an outright underdog, and it took care of a short-handed Toronto team on Monday.

I think there’s a case for the Grizzlies at home, especially since the Nuggets (20th in defensive rating) aren’t great at getting stops. The Grizzlies should be able to hang around in this matchup, and Denver only has one win this season against a team that is over .500.

I’ll trust Memphis, which has been elite against the spread, to cover on Wednesday.

Pick: Grizzlies +3.5 (-106 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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