Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for NBA Playoffs Game 4

The Denver Nuggets are in trouble in the first round against the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Nikola Jokic and company were blown out in Game 3 on Thursday night, falling down 2-1 in the series heading into Saturday’s Game 4. Aaron Gordon (calf) missed Thursday’s loss, and it’s pretty clear that Denver isn’t nearly as good of a team without him.

The Nuggets went 27-9 when Gordon was in the lineup in the regular season and 27-19 in the games that he missed.

Even though Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle didn’t have big games on Thursday, a huge showing from Ayo Dosunmu off the bench (25 points, nine assists) helped lead the Wolves to a double-digit win.

Minnesota has made back-to-back Western Conference Finals appearances, and it’s looking more and more like a team that could shock people with a deep playoff run in the 2026 NBA Playoffs.

Oddsmakers have set Denver as a small road favorite (again) in Game 4, but can it win to even this series at two games apiece?

Here’s a look at the betting odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this Western Conference showdown.

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Nuggets -2.5 (-105)
Timberwolves +2.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Nuggets: -135
Timberwolves: +114

Total

229.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves How to Watch

Date: Saturday, April 25
Time: 8:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Target Center
How to Watch (TV): ABC
Series: Minnesota leads 2-1

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Injury Reports

Nuggets Injury Report

Peyton Watson -- out
Aaron Gordon -- questionable

Timberwolves Injury Report

None to report

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bets

Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bet

Anthony Edwards OVER 5.5 Rebounds (-128)

This postseason, Edwards has really stepped up on the glass after averaging just 5.0 rebounds per game in the regular season. He picked up nine and 10 boards in the first two games of this series before finishing with five boards in just 23:40 in Game 3 due to foul trouble.

Edwards entered Game 3 averaging 15.0 rebound chances per game, which gives him a pretty solid floor when it comes to this market. This improvement on the glass is in line with Edwards' last few playoff runs, and I think that makes him a little undervalued in Game 3.

In the 2024 playoffs, Edwards averaged 7.0 rebounds per game across 16 games, and he followed that up by averaging 7.8 rebounds per game in 15 games last season.

The Wolves are clearly going to play the former No. 1 overall pick as many minutes as he can handle, and that should help him keep his rebounding numbers up. Over his last three playoff runs (including 2026), Edwards has pulled down six or more boards in 24 of his 34 games.

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Prediction and Pick

The first three games in this series have finished with 221, 233 and 209 combined points, and the Minnesota defense has really stepped things up since the second half of Game 2.

The Wolves held Denver – the No. 1 offense in the league in the regular season – under 100 points in Game 3, and the recipe for the Wolves making any run this season is by playing at a high level at that end.

While Anthony Edwards has not found his offense so far in this series, Denver hasn’t been able to hold up – especially without Gordon – in the last two games, giving up 119 and 113 points.

Still, I think the UNDER is the play in Game 4, as Minnesota has taken away Jokic as a passer (11 assists over the last two games) by playing him straight up with Rudy Gobert.

Even though these teams are playing at the fastest pace of any playoff series, they are 11th (Denver) and eighth (Minnesota) in offensive rating. This total is a little too high given how well the Wolves have defended in their two wins.

Pick: UNDER 229.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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