Ole Miss vs. Florida Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 4

The No. 4 Ole Miss Rebels picked up one of the biggest wins of the season to date in Week 3, upsetting Lane Kiffin and the LSU Tigers on Saturday night.

The Rebels were clearly up to the task against their former head coach, and quarterback Trinidad Chambliss was magnificent in the win, throwing for 363 yards a pair of scores while adding another on the ground. He’s now the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy in the 2026 season.

Now, Chambliss and Co. hit the road for a date with the No. 21 Florida Gators, who are a new entrant into the top-25 this week. Florida is off to a 3-0 start, knocking off Auburn in Week 3 by five points.

The Gators are always known for being an elite team at home, and they’re actually favored in this matchup against the No. 4 team in the country.

New head coach Jon Sumrall and quarterback Aaron Philo have this team sitting at 55th in the country in EPA/Play on offense and 47th in EPA/Play overall in 2026.

Can Florida pick up another statement win and prove that it’s back in contention in the SEC?

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this SEC showdown.

Ole Miss vs. Florida Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Ole Miss +3.5 (-115)
Florida -3.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Ole Miss: +136
Florida: -162

Total

60.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Ole Miss vs. Florida How to Watch

Date: Saturday, Sept. 26
Time: 3:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
How to Watch (TV): ABC
Ole Miss record: 3-0
Florida record: 3-0

Ole Miss vs. Florida Key Player to Watch

Trinidad Chambliss, Quarterback, Ole Miss

The new Heisman favorite, Trinidad Chambliss is now up to seven passing scores, two rushing scores and 924 passing yards in three games this season.

Ole Miss is a perfect 3-0, and a win over a top-10 team like LSU has improved the Rebels' chances of making the College Football Playoff. There are plenty of big games ahead for Chambliss, but he's shown since last year's playoff that he's one of the best quarterbacks in the country.

If he can take down Florida – as a road underdog – it’ll only improve his Heisman case early in the season. Since last season, Chambliss has thrown 29 scores to just five picks, completing 66.8 percent of his passes.

Ole Miss vs. Florida Prediction and Pick

I understand Florida is a different team to deal with at home, but I’m shocked that this line has moved through the key number of three on Saturday.

Ole Miss has faced a tough schedule to open the season, beating a top-10 LSU squad and a ranked Louisville team over its first three games.

Pete Golding has this program humming after a huge win at home, and while this may be viewed as a letdown spot, I think the Rebels are the more talented team.

Florida barely got past Auburn in Week 3, winning by five, and its other two wins came against FAU and Campbell. The Rebels are by far the best team Florida will have faced in the Sumrall era, and Ole Miss is eighth in the country in EPA/Play and in the top-20 in offensive success rate this season.

While the Rebels’ defense is just 54th in success rate and 23rd in EPA/Play, I’m not sold on this Florida offense just yet. The Gators are 120th in EPA/Pass and 83rd in EPA/Rush despite a pretty soft schedule to open 2026. Philo has already thrown a pair of picks, and I’m intrigued to see what he looks like against a true national title contender.

There’s certainly a world where Florida wins this game, but I can’t pass up a chance to get 3.5 points with Chambliss and the Rebels, who continue to win every time they’ve been counted out over the last two seasons.

Pick: Ole Miss +3.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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