Orioles vs. Guardians Prediction and Odds: Baltimore is Best Underdog Bet Today

The Baltimore Orioles have lost two straight games to fall to 9-9 on the season, but they'll look to find some momentum today when they begin a four-game series against the Cleveland Guardians.

The Guardians have also lost two straight games, but remain one game above .500 at 10-9.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bets for today's series opener.

Orioles vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Orioles -1.5 (+161)
Guardians +1.5 (-196)

Moneyline

Orioles +104
Guardians -126

Total

OVER 8 (-110)
UNDER 8 (-110)

Orioles vs. Guardians Probable Pitchers

Baltimore: Shane Baz, RHP (0-1, 4.50 ERA)
Cleveland: Parker Messick, LHP (2-0, 0.51 ERA)

Orioles vs. Guardians How to Watch

Date: Thursday, April 16
Time: 6:10 p.m. ET
Venue: Progressive Field
How to Watch (TV): MASN, Guardians.TV Presented by Progressive
Orioles record: 9-9
Guardians record: 10-9

Orioles vs. Guardians Best Prop Bet

Jeremiah Jackson OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+133)

Jeremiah Jackson has been fantastic for the Orioles so far this season. He leads the team in batting average at .340, along with a slugging percentage of .604. Let's bet on him to continue his hot streak tonight against the Guardians, who are starting Parker Messick tonight. Messick has been great in his first three starts, but a 2.93 FIP indicates some potential regression coming.

Orioles vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

I'm not going to argue the that the Orioles have the advantage in starting pitching tonight. Parker Messick has been far better than Shane Baz this season, sporting a 0.51 ERA compared to Baz at 4.51. With that being said, I do expect some positive regression from Baz, who has a 3.66 FIP.

With that aside, the Orioles have a significant advantage when it comes to both offensive output and bullpen. Baltimore is fifth in the Majors in wRC+ at 111, while the Guardians come in at 13th in that metric at 104.

What could be the most important factor tonight is the Guardians' bullpen. They have one of the worst bullpen ERAs in the Majors so far this season at 5.08, while the Orioles' bullpen is 13th at 3.62. That could be the difference if this game is close in the final few innings.

The Orioles are the best underdog bet on the board tonight.

Pick: Orioles +104 via DraftKings

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