Padres vs. Dodgers Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Thursday, July 2

The Los Angeles Dodgers open a weekend series with the San Diego Padres on Thursday night, and they are heavily favored at home to pick up a win.

Right-hander Roki Sasaki (4.88 ERA) is on the mound and looking to bounce back from a rough outing against San Diego last week when he allowed three runs in four innings of work in a 7-1 loss.

He’ll take on Padres youngster Randy Vasquez, who was rocked for seven runs in a loss to the Dodgers in their last series. Vasquez has fallen to the first percentile in expected ERA this season, putting the Padres in a tough spot as they try to remain over .500 in 2026.

San Diego is now 12 games back of the Dodgers and has dropped five games in a row heading into this series opener.

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this NL West showdown on Thursday night.

Padres vs. Dodgers Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Padres +1.5 (-126)
Dodgers -1.5 (+105)

Moneyline

Padres: +162
Dodgers: -198

Total

9 (Over -14/Under -105)

Padres vs. Dodgers Probable Pitchers

San Diego: Randy Vasquez (6-6, 4.44 ERA)
Los Angeles: Roki Sasaki (3-5, 4.88 ERA)

Padres vs. Dodgers How to Watch

Date: Thursday, July 2
Time: 10:10 p.m. EST
Venue: Dodger Stadium
How to Watch (TV): MLB Network, Padres.TV/Sportsnet L.A.
Padres record: 43-42
Dodgers record: 56-31

Padres vs. Dodgers Best MLB Prop Bets

Dodgers Best MLB Prop Bet

Freddie Freeman to Hit a Home Run (+303)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run props column – Daily Dinger – why Freeman is a great bet against Vasquez:

Freeman has dominated Padres starting pitcher Randy Vasquez in his career, and I think now is the perfect time to bet on the veteran to go deep.

Over the last week, Freeman is hitting .455 with one home run, and he’s put together a strong last month, hitting .341 with five home runs and a 1.027 OPS over his last 25 games.

Now, he takes on a starter that has a shaky ERA (4.44) and has given up 13 home runs in 16 outings this season, including two home runs in his last start against the Dodgers.

Freeman is 5-for-9 (.556) with three doubles against Vasquez in his career, and I think now is a perfect time for him to go deep for the 15th time this season.

Padres vs. Dodgers Prediction and Pick

I’m fading both of these starters on Thursday night, and I explained why in today’s MLB Best Bets column:

The San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers are playing their second series in less than 10 days, and we have an interesting pitching matchup to decipher on Thursday night.

Randy Vasquez (4.44 ERA) is on the mound for the Padres in this series opener after he was tagged for eight hits, seven runs and two homers in his last outing against them, going just 3.1 innings. Vasquez has allowed seven runs in back-to-back starts, pushing his expected ERA this season to 7.05, which ranks in the first percentile in MLB.

So, I think he’s going to struggle against a Dodgers offense that is No. 1 in wRC+, batting average and OPS while ranking second in runs scored.

On the other side, Roki Sasaki (4.88 ERA) is on the mound for Los Angeles, and he clocks in with a 4.59 expected ERA this season. The Dodgers right-hander gave up three runs in four innings in a 7-1 loss to San Diego in his last start, so I don’t mind fading him as well in this matchup.

The total in the first five innings is set at 4.5, and I think this could easily go OVER, as neither of these pitchers was able to even get through five innings in the series late last month.

Pick: First 5 Innings OVER 4.5 (-160 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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