Padres vs. Phillies Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Tuesday, June 2

The Philadelphia Phillies swept the San Diego Padres last week in San Diego, and now the teams meet this week in Philadelphia for another three-game set.

The Padres are just 3-7 over their last 10 games, dropping to five games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West standings. Meanwhile, the Phillies have rebounded from a slow start to get back over .500, sitting in second in the NL East.

Tuesday’s matchup features the same pitching that we saw on May 26 between these teams, where Philly came away with a 4-3 victory. Aaron Nola (5.72 ERA) is on the mound for Philadelphia and is looking to turn around what has been a shaky start to 2026.

He’ll go up against Randy Vasquez (3.28 ERA), who has led the Padres to a 8-3 record in his 11 starts despite some concerning advanced numbers.

Can the Padres get revenge on the road and take this series?

Here’s a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for the series opener between the Padres and Phillies on June 2.

Padres vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Padres +1.5 (-186)
Phillies -1.5 (+153)

Moneyline

Padres: +113
Phillies: -136

Total

8 (Over -114/Under -106)

Padres vs. Phillies Probable Pitchers

San Diego: Randy Vasquez (5-3, 3.28 ERA)
Philadelphia: Aaron Nola (3-4, 5.72 ERA)

Padres vs. Phillies How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, June 2
Time: 6:40 p.m. EST
Venue: Citizens Bank Park
How to Watch (TV): TBS
Padres record: 32-36
Phillies record: 30-29

Padres vs. Phillies Best MLB Prop Bets

Phillies Best MLB Prop Bet

Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run (+426)

One of my favorite props on Tuesday is a home-run pick for Bryce Harper, who closed out today’s edition of Daily Dinger (which you can read fully here):

I’m closing out these picks with arguably my favorite bet of the night, as Philadelphia Phillies star Bryce Harper takes on a shaky San Diego Padres starter in Randy Vasquez.

This season, Vasquez has a 3.28 ERA, but his advanced numbers suggest that he’s been much worse. The young righty ranks in the fifth percentile in expected ERA (6.21), the fifth percentile in expected BAA (.293), the fifth percentile in barrel percentage and the 13th percentile in hard-hit percentage. On top of that, Vasquez is just 28th in ground-ball rate, so hitters have been able to lift the ball against him quite a bit in 2026.

That sets up well for Harper, who has 13 home runs in the 2026 campaign. The former league MVP is 3-for-5 with a home run against Vasquez in his career. Even though Harper has been slumping over the last two weeks, he’s undervalued at this price on Tuesday night.

Padres vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

Both of these teams have struggled offensively in the 2026 season, as the Phillies are 28th in MLB in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) while the Padres are 27th.

Over the last 15 days, these are the two worst teams in MLB in both OPS and batting average, which could be a good sign for the UNDER. After all, these teams combined for three, seven and three runs last week, with the Padres getting shut out twice at home.

While I do like the UNDER in this matchup, I’m also on the Phillies to win this game.

Nola has not been great this season, but his expected ERA (4.45) is much better than his actual ERA. The veteran right-hander threw six innings of two-run ball against the Padres on May 26, and he still ranks in the 62nd percentile in average exit velocity against the 70th percentile in chase rate this season.

Meanwhile, Vasquez’s advanced profile is a nightmare.

The Padres righty has a 6.21 expected ERA, a .293 expected batting average against and ranks in the 14th percentile or worse in average exit velocity against, hard-hit percentage and barrel percentage.

The Phillies may not be the offense to fully take advantage of Vasquez’s shortcomings, but after starting the season 5-0 in his starts, the Padres are 3-3 over Vasquez’s last six outings. He posted a 4.55 ERA during that stretch, completing six innings in just one start.

I think Philadelphia is a solid bet to win this series opener on Tuesday.

Pick: Phillies Moneyline (-136 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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