Patrick Mahomes is Odds-On Favorite to Start Week 1 Despite Injury

The 2025 NFL campaign was a nightmare season for the Kansas City Chiefs. Not only did they lose one-score games every week and miss the playoffs for the first time since 2014, but their generational quarterback and two-time MVP, Patrick Mahomes, went down with season-ending ACL and LCL injuries.

Injuries that serious don't heal overnight, but the good news is, the betting market expects him to be healthy enough to start Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season.

Let's take a look.

Who Will Start at QB for the Chiefs in Week 1?

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Patrick Mahomes -720
Justin Fields +500
Any other QB +3500

FanDuel has posted odds for who will start at quarterback for the Chiefs for Week 1 of the upcoming season. For other teams, like the Browns and Raiders, these types of odds indicate an upcoming quarterback battle for the starting role. That's obviously not the case for the Chiefs. Instead, it's a question of whether or not Mahomes will be healthy or not to suit up against the Denver Broncos in Week 1.

Mahomes is set as the -720 favorite to be the Week 1 starter, an implied probability of 87.8% that he'll be healthy enough by then to return to action. That's great news for the Chiefs, who signed Justin Fields to back up Mahomes just in case they need him.

The Chiefs open their season on Monday Night Football against the Broncos, and then have three favorable games against the Colts, Dolphins, and Raiders before going on a Week 5 BYE.

The Chiefs' odds to return to the playoffs sit at -184, which is the fourth-best playoff odds in the AFC. They're also +175 favorites to re-take the AFC West crown. Mahomes is currently set as the +150 favorite to win the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award, and he's fifth on the odds list to win his third career NFL MVP at +1000 odds.

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