Patriots vs. Jaguars Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 3

Two of the best teams in the AFC last season are set to face off in Week 3, as the New England Patriots hit the road to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars.

This is the second straight tough AFC matchup for the Jags, as they lost to the Denver Broncos as 2.5-point underdogs in Week 2. Jacksonville is favored at home in this matchup, but both of these teams are 1-1 so far this season.

Drake Maye and the Patriots knocked off the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 2, holding them to just three points in that matchup. The New England defense is No. 2 in the league in EPA/Play this season, making up for the fact that Maye has thrown four picks and just one score in two games.

Jacksonville took a step back after dominating the Cleveland Browns in Week 1, but it is 2-2 against the spread after a loss in the Liam Coen era. Can the Jags pick up a win and push themselves further ahead of the rest of the pack in the AFC South?

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player to watch, betting trends, injury reports, my prediction and more for this AFC showdown in Week 3.

Patriots vs. Jaguars Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Patriots +3 (-112)
Jaguars -3 (-108)

Moneyline

Patriots: +140
Jaguars: -166

Total

45.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Patriots vs. Jaguars How to Watch

Date: Sunday, Sept. 27
Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
Venue: EverBank Stadium
How to Watch (TV): CBS
Patriots record: 1-1
Jaguars record: 1-1

Patriots vs. Jaguars Injury Reports

Patriots Injury Report

Mike Onwenu – out
Carlton Davis III – questionable
Dametrious Crownover – questionable
Eli Raridon – questionable
Craig Woodson – questionable
Dre’Mont Jones – questionable
Dell Pettus – questionable
A.J. Brown – injured reserve

Jaguars Injury Report

DaVon Hamilton – questionable

Patriots vs. Jaguars Betting Trends

The Patriots are 1-0-1 against the spread this season.
The Jaguars are 1-1 against the spread this season.
Jacksonville is 1-0 against the spread at home.
The Patriots are 0-0-1 against the spread on the road.
The OVER is 1-1 in the Jaguars’ games this season.
The UNDER is 2-0 in the Patriots’ games this season.
Liam Coen and the Jags are 2-2 against the spread after a loss since he took over in 2025.

Patriots vs. Jaguars Key Player to Watch

Drake Maye, Quarterback, New England Patriots

Maye has not looked like the same player that finished second in the MVP voting last season, completing 67.3 percent of his passes for 386 yards, one score and four picks.

The Patriots’ offense has ground to a standstill, ranking 26th in EPA/Play and 29th in EPA/Pass. With A.J. Brown sidelined for the next few weeks, Maye has to make due with Romeo Doubs, Demario Douglass and Mack Hollins as his top options at receiver.

This is a potential bounce-back spot for Maye after Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos really got rolling against this Jacksonville defense in the second half of Week 2. Maye has potential to be one of the top quarterbacks in the league, and Mike Vrabel’s team needs him to improve to have any chance at a playoff spot in 2026.

Patriots vs. Jaguars Prediction and Pick

Maye and the Patriots have gotten off to a slow start offensively this season, ranking in the bottom 10 in the league in EPA/Play. The loss of Brown is tough to handle, but I still think there are some encouraging signs from the Patriots as a team through two weeks.

The Patriots' defense has been elite, ranking No. 2 in the league in EPA/Play and No. 4 in yards per play allowed, holding Pittsburgh to just three points in Week 2.

New England has allowed just 16 points across two games, and I think a small offensive step forward could lead the Patriots to a win in this matchup.

This line opened with the Patriots as 2.5-point underdogs, yet it has moved in Jacksonville’s favor early in the week. As long as we can get a field goal with New England, I think that’s pretty favorable in what is a toss-up of a game.

Jacksonville looked great in Week 1 against Cleveland, but it wilted down the stretch in Week 2 against a much better Denver team. New England and Denver are in a similar class, and I think the Patriots can take advantage of a Jaguars defense that is allowing 6.1 yards per play (29th in the NFL) so far this season.

Pick: Patriots +3 (-112 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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