Phillies vs. Braves Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for NL Wild Card Game 3

October baseball is upon us, and we have a massive playoff game on Thursday night.

The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves are the only teams remaining in the wild card round, setting up a standalone Game 3 on Thursday night.

The Phillies came back from a 3-1 deficit in Game 2 – after a key Bryce Harper error – to win in extra innings behind solo shots from Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Alec Bohm.

The starting pitching matchup for Game 3 is murky at the moment, although two beat reporters gave some insight into what these teams might do.

Long-time Phillies reporter Jim Salisbury shared that he’s hearing veteran Aaron Nola will get the start for the Phillies while the Braves will go with an opener in Ray Kerr. The Atlanta bullpen is elite, ranking fourth in MLB in ERA during the regular season.

Hearing Phillies will start Aaron Nola tonight vs. Braves opener Ray Kerr, a lefty. Always subject to change but that’s the plan as of this AM.
— Jim Salisbury (@JimSalisbury215) October 1, 2026

Braves beat reporter Mark Bowman also shared some insight to the starting pitching matchup, mentioning that Braves righty Grant Holmes could be used as the “bulk” option behind Kerr on Thursday. He also believes the Phillies will use a combo of Nola and ace Zack Wheeler, who would be pitching on short rest after leading the Phillies to a win on Sunday.

Grant Holmes says he hasn’t been told whether he’ll start tomorrow. I’d still guess they’ll go with Kerr as an opener and Holmes as the bulk guy. Phillies could use some combo of Nola and Wheeler.
— Mark Bowman (@mlbbowman) September 30, 2026

All hands are going to be on deck in this matchup for both teams, as this is a win-or-go-home scenario.

Oddsmakers have set the Phillies as slight favorites on the road, a sign that they have more confidence in Philly’s options to start in this game.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Thursday’s Game 3.

Phillies vs. Braves Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Phillies -1.5 (+144)
Braves +1.5 (-174)

Moneyline

Phillies: -118
Braves: -102

Total

7.5 (Over +100/Under -120)

Phillies vs. Braves Probable Pitchers

Philadelphia: Aaron Nola (7-12, 4.67 ERA)
Atlanta: Ray Kerr (0-0, 1.47 ERA)

Phillies vs. Braves How to Watch

Date: Thursday, Oct. 1
Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Truist Park
How to Watch (TV): NBC, Peacock
Series: Tied 1-1

Phillies vs. Braves Best MLB Prop bets

Braves Best MLB Prop Bet

Drake Baldwin OVER 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBIs (-108)

In today’s edition of Walk-Off Wagers – our MLB Best Bets column at SI – I shared why Baldwin is worth a look if Nola gets the start:

If Nola ends up getting the start, it’s a good sign for Braves catcher/designated hitter Drake Baldwin.

Baldwin picked up two hits and a run batted in on Wednesday, and he’s fared extremely well against Nola in his career.

The 25-year-old is 5-for-11 (.455) against Nola in his career, with a .955 OPS. He’s driven in one run against the Phillies veteran, and Nola has struggled quite a bit with the long ball this season, allowing 37 in 33 starts during the regular season.

A homer would immediately hit this prop for Baldwin, and he’s coming off a strong showing on Wednesday. During the regular season, the Braves star hit .284 overall and .307 against right-handed pitching.

Baldwin also entered the playoffs on a hot streak, batting .360 with two home runs, five runs batted in and a .951 OPS over the final two weeks (12 games). He’s a pretty interesting bet with this prop set at -108 on Thursday.

Phillies vs. Braves Prediction and Pick

Another play from today’s Walk-Off Wagers, I’m going to back the Phillies to win and advance after stealing Game 2:

There’s certainly an argument to be made for the Braves, who went 23 games over .500 at home in the regular season, but I lean with the Phillies in Game 3.

If Wheeler is able to pitch on short rest in any capacity, he’ll be by far the best pitcher in this game and had a massive finish to the regular season. Wheeler had a 1.71 ERA in September, lowering his season-long ERA to 3.00. He may not be able to give the Phils a ton of length, but it should help ease the pressure on their bullpen.

Nola has pitched in a ton of big games in his career, and I don’t want to downplay his two solid starts against Atlanta earlier this month. In two outings, Nola allowed just 10 hits and three earned runs across 13.1 innings of work.

The Braves have only used Kerr as an opener once this season, and Holmes had some very shaky advanced numbers in the regular season, ranking in the 12th percentile in expected ERA and the 18th percentile in expected BAA.

The Atlanta bullpen has been taxed in this series, pitching Didier Fuentes, Dylan Lee and Rasiel Iglesias in back-to-back days. That’s not nothing. Can the Atlanta ‘pen hold up after blowing Game 2?

I’d much rather take the Phillies and their proven veteran starters in a winner-take-all game, especially after they showed they can power themselves to a win on Wednesday.

Pick: Phillies Moneyline (-118 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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