Phillies' World Series Odds, Playoff Odds Stay Stagnant Following Luis Arraez Trade

Add the Philadelphia Phillies to the list of National League contenders that have made a move for the playoff push.

Philadelphia reportedly acquired four-time All-Star and three-time batting champion Luis Arraez on Monday morning in a deal with the San Francisco Giants. The Phillies will also receive reliever Caleb Killian in the deal in exhchange for two prospects, including their No. 4 prospect Ramon Marquez.

The Phillies are acquiring 2B Luis Arraez and RHP Caleb Kilian from the Giants for RHP Ramon Marquez (Phillies No. 4 prospect per @MLBPipeline) and RHP Marty Gair, per source. @JeffPassan and @BNightengale were on it.
— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) August 3, 2026

The move is a big one for a Philadelphia offense that is just 23rd in MLB in batting average and 26th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) in the 2026 season. However, it hasn't moved the odds for the Phils at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Philly is currently in a tie with the Arizona Diamondbacks for the No. 2 wild card spot in the National League, but it has just a one-game cushion over the San Diego Padres (fourth in the NL wild card) entering Monday's action.

Oddsmakers have the Phillies at No. 8 in the odds to win the World Series at +1900, and they remain favored to make the playoffs (-320). However, those playoff odds have not moved since the deal for Arraez was reported. It's possible that the betting market doesn't view Arraez as a player that can take the Phillies over the top in the National League, which features the Los Angeles Dodgers, Milwaukee Brewers, Atlanta Braves and Chicago Cubs.

Arraez currently leads the National League in batting average (.324), and he's been one of the best pure hitters in MLB for several years. He has a career .318 batting average, and Arraez has just 21 strikeouts in 105 games this season.

He's not going to hit for a ton of power (Arraez has just four home runs in 2026), but he should be able to get on base ahead of Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and the middle of this Philadelphia lineup. All season long, the Phils have struggled offensively, and they do have a concerning minus-4 run differential despite the fact that they're six games over .500.

Since Philly is eight games back of Atlanta in the NL East, it'll likely need to earn a wild card spot to make the playoffs. Even though the team's odds didn't move from the Arraez trade, he's certainly an upgrade to their current lineup and should help them hold off some of the chasing pack.

FanGraphs now gives the Phillies a 74.4 percent chance to make the postseason in 2026.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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