Pirates vs. Marlins Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Thursday, Aug. 13

The Miami Marlins and Pittsburgh Pirates are trending in opposite directions in the National League playoff race heading into Thursday afternoon’s series finale.

Miami took the first two games of this series and has won four games in a row, sitting just 1.5 games back of the Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies for the final wild card spot in the NL.

Meanwhile, the Pirates are losers of three in a row and eight of their last 10. Dropping them to six games back in the wild card hunt. It would take a major run over the final few weeks of the regular season for Pittsburgh to pass up several teams and earn a wild card spot.

On Thursday, right-hander Braxton Ashcraft aims to stop the bleeding for the Pirates, and he’ll take on Marlins righty Tyler Phillips. After beginning the season in the bullpen, Phillips has been in Miami’s rotation full time since mid-June, posting a 4.68 ERA over his last 11 games.

As for Ashcraft, he spun five innings of two-run ball against Miami earlier this season (in a loss), and the Pirates are 15-8 this season when he’s on the mound. Can they avoid a sweep on Thursday and gain some ground in the wild card hunt?

Let’s check out the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this NL battle on Aug. 13.

Pirates vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Pirates -1.5 (+137)
Marlins +1.5 (-167)

Moneyline

Pirates: -119
Marlins: +111

Total

8 (Over -110/Under -110)

Pirates vs. Marlins Probable Pitchers

Pittsburgh: Braxton Ashcraft (11-5, 4.08 ERA)
Miami: Tyler Phillips (3-5, 3.47 ERA)

Pirates vs. Marlins How to Watch

Date: Thursday, Aug. 13
Time: 1:10 p.m. EST
Venue: loanDepot park
How to Watch (TV): MLB.TV
Guardians record: 58-64
Tigers record: 62-59

Pirates vs. Marlins Best MLB Prop Bets

Pirates Best MLB Prop Bet

Braxton Ashcraft UNDER 17.5 Outs Recorded (-106)

This month, Ashcraft has thrown 69 and 82 pitches in two starts, recording just 15 outs (five innings) in each of them .

He needs to complete six innings to clear this prop, but the young right-hander has done that just one time since July 1 and 12 times in 23 outings this season. After pitching at least six innings in all six of his outings in May, Ashcraft has done so in just four of his last 11 appearances.

The Pirates may be looking to limit his innings, and he’s only reached the 100-pitch mark once this season. That lowers his ceiling when it comes to this prop, so I don’t mind going under on Thursday.

Pirates vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick

Pittsburgh’s offense has been the main cause of this recent tumble down the standings, as the Pirates are just 29th in MLB in OPS over the last 30 days. That’s not going to cut it in the thick of a playoff race, and the Pirates have been held to just two runs across two games in this series.

Despite that, I think they’re worth a look in this series finale with Ashcraft on the bump.

Not only has Pittsburgh thrived with the youngster on the mound (15-8), but he’s put together a strong season, ranking in the 73rd percentile in expected ERA and the 64th percentile in expected BAA. Ashcraft has been able to get batters to swing out of the zone a ton, sitting in the 97th percentile in chase percentage.

So, that could bode well against a Miami team that is just 16th in OPS over the last 30 days and 15th this season in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+).

As for Phillips, he ranks in just the 18th percentile in expected ERA and the 15th percentile in expected BAA. Miami is 6-7 in his 13 starts this season, and he has a Fielding Independent Pitching of 5.46 since joining the rotation full time in June.

I don’t trust him to outduel Ashcraft, and the Pirates are due to show some life on offense. I’ll give them a shot to avoid a sweep on Thursday afternoon.

Pick: Pirates Moneyline (-119 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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