Pirates vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Monday, Aug. 24

The San Diego Padres have won three games in a row and seven of their last 10 to move into the No. 3 spot in the NL wild card race, jumping the Arizona Diamondbacks (now two games back) in the process.

On Monday, the Padres open a series with the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are 8.5 games back of the final wild card spot in the NL and six games under .500 in the 2026 season. Pittsburgh has faded on offense over the last month, ranking 20th in runs scored, 24th in batting average and 28th in OPS.

Those struggles have dropped the Pirates from a top-five team in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) to ninth for the 2026 season.

Despite that, San Diego is set in a pick’em at home with this Pittsburgh team. Young right-hander Braxton Ashcraft is a major reason why, as he’s tossed 17.0 innings of two-run ball over his last two appearances for Pittsburgh.

Overall, the Pirates are 17-8 when Ashcraft is on the mound this season.

The Padres will counter with trade-deadline addition Robbie Ray (3.20 ERA), who is coming off a win over the New York Mets in his last outing.

Let’s take a look at the betting odds, a player prop to consider and my prediction for Monday’s series opener.

Pirates vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Pirates -1.5 (+150)
Padres +1.5 (-182)

Moneyline

Pirates: -109
Padres: -111

Total

7.5 (Over -103/Under -117)

Pirates vs. Padres Probable Pitchers

Pittsburgh: Braxton Ashcraft (13-5, 3.68 ERA)
San Diego: Robbie Ray (11-7, 3.20 ERA)

Pirates vs. Padres How to Watch

Date: Monday, Aug. 24
Time: 9:40 p.m. EST
Venue: Petco Park
How to Watch (TV): MLB.TV/Padres.TV
Pirates record: 63-69
Padres record: 71-60

Pirates vs. Padres Best MLB Prop Bets

Padres Best MLB Prop Bet

Fernando Tatis Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+468)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – why Tatis is undervalued at this price against Pittsburgh:

A two-homer game on Sunday continued a red-hot stretch for Fernando Tatis Jr., yet he’s nearly 5/1 to leave the yard on Monday night.

Tatis is hitting .352 with nine homers over his last 24 games (23 starts), and he’s batting an insane .480 with four home runs over the last week.

After a slow start when it came to his power this season, Tatis is up to 17 homers and has an OPS over .800 for a Padres team that is in the driver’s seat to make the playoffs in the National League.

I’m buying the star outfielder against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are sending Braxton Ashcraft (21 homers allowed this season) to the mound on Monday. Ashcraft has a 3.68 ERA this season, but he’s allowed at least one homer in all but one of his starts since July 1.

I think Tatis is mispriced after a major game on Sunday, and he should continue his late-season surge in this series opener.

Pirates vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

I don’t love taking a side in this matchup, as the Padres are clearly the better team at the moment but Ashcraft has been the better starter in this matchup. Pittsburgh has won over 60 percent of Ashcraft’s outings, and the young right-hander ranks in the 77th percentile in expected ERA this season.

For comparison, Ray sits in the 28th percentile in expected ERA and his FIP (4.59) is way higher than his actual ERA (3.20) a sign that he’s due for a little regression.

So, instead of taking a team to win, I’m going to take the UNDER in the first five innings on Monday.

Ashcraft has allowed just eight hits and two runs over his last 17.0 innings of work, and he has a 2.00 ERA in four starts this month.

While I’m not as confident in Ray’s numbers in 2026, the Pirates’ offense has been in a serious slide (mentioned in the intro) over the last month. Ray should be able to keep this team in check for at least the first few frames on Monday.

Pick: First 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 (-135 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and get $150 in bonus bets instantly when you make your first $5 bet.

Add us as a preferred source on Google