Pirates vs. Yankees Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Tuesday, July 21

The New York Yankees and Pittsburgh Pirates combined for 13 runs in the first three innings of Monday’s series opener, allowing New York to come away with an 8-5 win to keep pace in the AL East.

The Yankees remain 1.5 games back of the Tampa Bay Rays heading into Tuesday’s matchup, where Will Warren (4.03 ERA) will get the ball for New York against Pittsburgh’s Bubba Chandler (4.77 ERA).

Monday’s loss didn’t cost Pittsburgh a tie for the final wild card spot in the National League, as the St. Louis Cardinals (losers of three in a row) and Miami Marlins (losers of seven in a row) both came up short in their respective series openers.

The Pirates are set as underdogs at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday, but they may be able to get to Warren, who has seen his ERA jump from 3.22 to 4.03 since June 1.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this interleague battle.

Pirates vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Pirates +1.5 (-158)
Yankees -1.5 (+131)

Moneyline

Pirates: +123
Yankees: -149

Total

9 (Over -114/Under -105)

Pirates vs. Yankees Probable Pitchers

Pittsburgh: Bubba Chandler (3-8, 4.77 ERA)
New York: Will Warren (7-4, 4.03 ERA)

Pirates vs. Yankees How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, July 21
Time: 7:05 pm. EST
Venue: Yankee Stadium
How to Watch (TV): YES Network, MLB.TV
Pirates record: 52-49
Yankees record: 56-44

Pirates vs. Yankees Best MLB Prop Bets

Pirates Best MLB Prop Bet

Brandon Lowe to Hit a Home Run (+338)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks column – Daily Dinger – why Lowe is a solid target against Warren:

Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman Brandon Lowe has cooled off in the month of July, but I think he can get back on track at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday night.

The Pirates are set to face New York right-hander Will Warren, who has allowed 14 home runs in 19 appearances this season. Warren has a 4.03 ERA, and he’s given up at least one home run in five straight starts, including a three-homer game against the Tampa Bay Rays.

While Lowe has been slumping as of late, he is 4-for-7 with a double and a 1.286 OPS against Warren in his career.

The Pirates slugger is also a much better hitter against right-handed pitching, posting a .256 batting average with 17 of his 21 homers in the 2026 season.

With the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium, Lowe is a threat to break out of his slump on Tuesday night.

Pirates vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

No team in MLB has hit the OVER more than the Pirates this season (60.2 percent of the time) and Monday’s game moved them to 59-39-3 to the OVER in 101 games.

Oddsmakers have bumped the total for Game 2 of this series all the way up to nine, but it makes sense given the pitching matchup.

Warren has fallen to the 37th percentile in expected ERA this season for New York, and he ranks in the 26th percentile in expected batting average against. That’s going to be a problem against a Pirates team that is in the top three in the league in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), runs scored, OPS and batting average this season.

New York also has a lethal offense – even with Aaron Judge out – sitting at No. 5 in the league in wRC+.

Chandler has a slightly better expected ERA than Warren, ranking in the 49th percentile, but he’s allowed 11 hits and six runs in two starts this month, failing to get through five innings in each outing. Since Pittsburgh’s bullpen has been shaky in 2026 (4.38 ERA), Chandler’s inability to work deep into games could benefit the Yankees on offense.

These teams both went off to start Monday’s game, and New York has now hit the OVER in 53.3 percent of its home games despite hitting the UNDER far more often on the road. I expect a high-scoring game on Tuesday.

Pick: OVER 9 (-114 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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