Player Prop Countdown: Top 10 NFL Player Props for Week 1 (Fade Caleb Williams in Bears' Opening Game)

The 2026 NFL season has begun! The Seattle Seahawks beat the New England Patriots in a Super Bowl rematch to get things started, and now we have 15 more games to watch and bet on.

You can find my best bet for every Week 1 game in this week's edition of the Road to 272 Bets, but if you're more interested in player props than sides and totals, you're in the right spot. Each week, I'm going to rank my top 10 player props for this week's action.

Best Week 1 NFL Prop Bets

10) Cam Ward OVER 196.5 Pass Yards (-114) via BetRivers

I'm going to buy some Cam Ward stock heading into this season. There's no avoiding the fact that he had a disappointing rookie campaign, but now that he has a new coaching staff and better offensive weapons to lean on, I expect him to take a step forward in 2026. This bet is also aided by the fact that he gets to face a Jets defense that was dead last in opponent pass EPA and 27th in opponent yards per pass attempt last season.

9) Ja'Kobi Lane OVER 1.5 Receptions (-132) via BetRivers

If there's one under-the-radar rookie that I'm in on early this season, it's Ja'Kobi Lane for the Baltimore Ravens. The third-round pick out of USC is slated to be one of the Ravens' starters at wide receiver, and with Zay Flowers being their only true weapon at the position, there should be plenty of opportunities for Lane to prove himself early in the 2026 season.

8) Kyler Murray OVER 20.5 Rush Yards (-125) via PointsBet

With Kyler Murray still getting used to the Vikings' system, I expect him to rely on his legs more often than he normally would, especially with him being fresh in a Week 1 game.

He has averaged 36.7 rushing yards per game throughout his career, including averaging 34.6 rushing yards in his five starts last season. There's a chance that he soars over his set total of 20.5 rushing yards on Sunday.

7) Bijan Robinson UNDER 74.5 Rush Yards (-112) via DraftKings

The quarterback situation is a disaster to begin the year. Michael Penix Jr. isn't ready to play yet, and Tua Tagovailoa is dealing with a back injury. That leaves Cooper Rush, Jack Strand, or an injured Tagovailoa playing in this game. That makes the Steelers' defensive game plan very simple: stack the box and stop Bijan Robinson.

Not only should that be an easy game plan for them, but if the Steelers take an early lead, the Falcons will have no choice but to abandon the run in the second half.

6) Cade Otton Anytime Touchdown (+370) via DraftKings

There certainly may be some changes to the Bengals' defense, but last season they allowed the most receiving touchdowns to opposing tight ends amongst all teams in the NFL. If that problem for them continues in 2026, it could set the Buccaneers' tight end Cade Otton up for a huge game. He hauled in 59 receptions in 2025 and will be Tampa Bay's primary tight end this season.

5) De'Von Achane UNDER 71.5 Rush Yards (-113) via DraftKings

De'Von Achane and the Miami Dolphins are in a similar situation to Bijan Robinson and the Atlanta Falcons. The Dolphins have few, if any, legitimate players on offense outside of Achane. That leaves the Las Vegas Raiders with an extremely easy defensive game plan. If they can stack the box and stop Achane, the Dolphins won't have many other places to go.

4) Charlie Kolar OVER 16.5 Receiving Yards (-112) via DraftKings

Everyone is all in on the Los Angeles Chargers offense this season with Mike McDaniel as their offensive coordinator, but people have completely forgotten about their tight ends. Charlie Kolar, the former Baltimore Raven, will enter the season as the Chargers' No. 1 tight end. He likely only needs a couple of receptions to hit 17+ yards, and that shouldn't be much of an issue with him being the starter at the position.

3) Javonte Williams OVER 72.5 Rush Yards (-113) via DraftKings

The New York Giants had the worst run defense in football last season, allowing teams to average 5.3 yards per carry. They did little to help their run defense this offseason, including trading away Dexter Lawrence to Cincinnati.

That could lead to Javonte Williams having a great Week 1 play. He's an underrated weapon on this Cowboys' offense, coming off a season where he racked up 1,201 yards while averaging 4.8 yards per carry. All he has to do is hit his season average from a year ago, and this bet will cash.

2) Caleb Williams UNDER 19.5 Completions (+105) via Caesars

Caleb Williams had plenty of late-game heroics last season, but that has fooled people into believing that he played better than he actually did. Amongst quarterbacks who played 320+ snaps last season, Williams ranked 29th out of 30 quarterbacks in completion percentage over expected.

He completed just 58.1% of his passes last season, averaging just 19.41 completions per game. I'm going to fade his completions at plus-money in this spot.

1) Deshaun Watson UNDER 178.5 Pass Yards (-114) via FanDuel

Deshaun Watson is the worst starting quarterback in the NFL, and if it weren't for his contract, the Browns wouldn't be giving him another chance. He averaged just 164 passing yards across his seven starts in 2024. I expect him to be even worse this season. I don't think he's going to touch this total against a Jaguars defense that was one of the best in the NFL last season.

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