Player Prop Countdown: Top 10 NFL Player Props for Week 2 (Bet on Baker Mayfield to Torch His Former Team)

There's no avoiding the fact that last week was a disaster, but transparency is a big part of what we do here, so it's time for yours truly to face the music. I went 1-9 for -8.12 units in the first week of the Player Prop Countdown.

This is why we gamble responsibly, because you never know what's going to happen. Kyler Murray and Ja'Kobi Lane both got hurt early in their games, giving them no chance to cash their props. Deshaun Watson and Bijan Robinson went over their totals with big plays on their last drives of the game, and then there were some bad bets mixed in, like trusting Cam Ward to go over his passing yards total despite being terrible as a rookie.

The good news is there's nowhere to go but up, and now that we have a week's worth of data, we can make some more educated bets moving forward. It's time to dive into my top 10 player props for Week 2.

Best NFL Week 2 Prop Bets

10) Jameson Williams OVER 4.5 Receptions +122 (DraftKings)

We're going to start things off with a player prop for the opening game of Week 2 on Thursday Night Football.

Jameson Williams was one of two receivers, along with Amon-Ra St. Brown, who recorded a reception for the Lions in Week 1, with the rest of the pass-catchers being tight ends and running backs. Only one other receiver, Isaac TeSlaa, saw a single target. That tells me the Lions are content with leaning on their top two players at the position, which should lead to plenty more balls being thrown Williams' way.

9) Jeremiyah Love UNDER 37.5 Rushing Yards -113 (DraftKings)

Jeremiyah Love ran for 11 times for 41 yards in his first NFL game, but he played in just 42.7% of offensive snaps. Now, he and the Cardinals have to take on the best run defense in the NFL. The Seattle Seahawks led the league in almost every single run defense metric last season, and then followed that up by leading the league in opponent rush EPA and allowing the Patriots to gain just 3.5 yards per rush.

It's going to be tough for Love to go over his total on Sunday.

8) Daniel Jones OVER 8.5 Rushing Yards -114 (FanDuel)

Daniel Jones only ran the ball once in the Colts' Week 1 game, but with the result not being what the Colts wanted, I expect him to go back to his bread and butter in Week 2 and start to rely on his legs more. He averages 27.9 rushing yards per game in his career, and while his injury will keep him from reaching those numbers, I think setting his rushing yards total at 8.5 is too big of an overadjustment.

7) Baker Mayfield OVER 204.5 Passing Yards -115 (BetRivers)

The Browns' defense isn't what it used to be. They finished the opening week ranking 31st in opponent dropback success rate and last in opponent dropback EPA. They also gave up a blistering 10.2 yards per pass attempt.

The only thing that's going to keep Baker Mayfield from going over this total against his former team is if the Buccaneers get up by so much that he doesn't have to throw the ball at all in the second half.

6) Kaelon Black OVER 9.5 Rush Attempts -116 (DraftKings)

Kaelon Black saw more action for the San Francisco 49ers in Week 1 than a lot of people expected. He ran the ball 14 times and played 43.1% of offensive snaps. He also performed well, averaging 4.6 yards per rush.

With the 49ers now set as 13.5-point favorites against the Miami Dolphins, I expect Kyle Shanahan to try to keep Christian McCaffrey as rested and healthy as possible, keeping him on the sideline once they take a lead. That could lead to even more rush attempts by Black in this game.

5) Geno Smith Longest Completion OVER 30.5 Yards -117 (DraftKings)

The Jets had a strong opening week offensively. Geno Smith completed four passes of 20+ yards and one pass of 40+ yards. Let's bet on that continuing in Week 2 when they take on a Packers defense that struggled to stop Carson Wentz in their opening game.

4) Matthew Golden Anytime TD +240 (FanDuel)

Matthew Golden hauled in six receptions for the Packers in Week 1, but he had the third-most targets of any pass-catcher across the league with 12. Despite competing for targets with Christian Watson and Jayden Reed, the Packers clearly want to get him the ball. The Jets' defense shut down the pass last week, but given the fact that they were facing Cam Ward and the Titans, I'm not intimidated by their results. Jordan Love should be able to attack this defense through the air, and Golden is a great bet to find the end zone at +240.

3) Antonio Williams OVER 26.5 Receiving Yards -112 (Caesars)

Antonio Williams was the most impressive rookie wide receiver in the opening week of games. He hauled in four receptions for 64 yards and a touchdown for the Washington Commanders and was graded as the best receiver in the league according to PFF.com. Now, he and the Commanders get to face a Cowboys defense that let Jaxson Dart and the Giants carve them up in the opening week.

2) Mike Gesicki OVER 2.5 Receptions +125 (Bet99)

The Houston Texans have two of the best cornerbacks in the NFL this season, so I expect offenses to target their tight ends in the middle of the field when playing against them. That's exactly what the Buffalo Bills did, as Dalton Kincaid hauled in five receptions for 130 yards against them.

That could lead to a big game by Mike Gesicki in Week 2. The Bengals' tight end hauled in five receptions for 78 yards and a touchdown in Week 1, so we already know that Joe Burrow trusts him. We only need him to haul in three catches in this game to cash this bet.

1) Cam Ward UNDER 188.5 Passing Yards -114 (FanDuel)

I bet the OVER on Cam Ward's passing yards total in Week 1, which turned out to be extremely dumb. He threw for just 140 yards against the New York Jets. Now, he has to play against one of the best defenses and one of the best cornerback tandems in the entire NFL. Why is the passing yards total set at 188.5 is beyond me. I'm going to completely flip and now fade Ward's passing yards total until further notice.

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