Portugal vs. Spain Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bet for World Cup Round of 16

We have an Iberian Derby set to take place in the World Cup's Round of 16 when Portugal takes on Spain with a berth in the quarterfinals on the line.

Cristiano Ronaldo is looking to make one last run with his country, while Spain is doing its best to reclaim the title of the best soccer country in the world.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bets for Monday's historic match.

Portugal vs. Spain Odds and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

To Advance

Portugal +178
Spain -225 (69.23% implied probability)

3-Way Moneyline

Portugal +310
Spain -115
Draw +260

Total

OVER 2.5 (-120)
UNDER 2.5 (-102)

Portugal vs. Spain How to Watch

Date: Monday, July 6
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Dallas Stadium
How to Watch (TV): Fox/Tele/Fox One
Portugal record: 2-2-0
Spain record: 3-1-0

Portugal vs. Spain History and Tournament Results

These two teams have faced each other 41 times before. Spain is 18-16-7 in those 41 matches. Portugal won the most recent match on penalties, which was a UEFA Nations League final in 2025.

Portugal

Portugal played DR Congo to a baffling 1-1 draw in its first match of the tournament. They rebounded with a 5-0 win against Uzbekistan, and then finished off the group stage with a 0-0 draw against Colombia. They defeated Croatia 2-1 in the Round of 32.

Spain

Spain played to a surprising 0-0 draw against Cape Verde in its opening match of the World Cup. They followed that up with three straight wins against Saudi Arabia, Uruguay, and then Austria in the Round of 32. They have yet to concede a goal in this tournament.

Portugal vs. Spain Best Prop Bet

Mikel Oyarzabal Anytime Goal (+150)

In today's edition of my Best World Cup Goal Scorer Bets, I made the case for betting on Mikel Oyarzabal to score at +150:

I'm surprised we can bet on Mikel Oyarzabal at +150 to find the back of the net in this match. He has been one of the best players in the entire tournament thus far, let alone on all of Spain. He's sixth amongst all players in expected goals at 3.83, behind only the likes of Messi, Mbappe, Kane, Haaland, and Vinicius Junior.

Portugal has an expected goals against of 1.38 per 90 minutes of play so far this tournament, so Spain should get its fair share of chances to score. Don't overthink this bet. Oyarzabal is the bet to make at +150.

Portugal vs. Spain Prediction and Pick

I'm going to bet on Portugal to win this match in regulation. I broke down the bet in today's edition of my Best World Cup Bets:

I can't help but feel like Spain has somehow become underrated after entering the tournament as the betting favorites to win it all. Ahead of the Round of 16, Spain leads all teams in expected goal differential per 90 minutes at +1.76. What's most impressive about their metrics is that they have allowed just 0.54 expected goals against per 90 minutes, by far the best number amongst all teams.

Portugal's numbers haven't been nearly as impressive, sporting an expected goal differential per 90 minutes of +0.11. Cristiano Ronaldo, if we're being honest, has hurt his team more than he has helped them by demanding to be the centerpiece despite clearly not being the player he once was. That'll still work against inferior opponents, but it's going to come back to haunt them against Spain.

Pick: Spain -115 (3-Way Moneyline) via FanDuel

Follow Iain on X and Instagram

With the latest FanDuel promo code new-user offer, you can get $350 in bonus bets. Create your new FanDuel account today, bet $5 for seven straight days and get $350 in bonus bets back.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!

Add us as a preferred source on Google