Chandler Simpson Emerges as Favorite to Lead Major League Baseball in Stolen Bases

Chandler Simpson has surged to the top of the 2026 stolen base market, with elite speed and a red-hot start putting him ahead of Elly De La Cruz and Bobby Witt Jr..

Tampa Bay Rays left fielder Chandler Simpson (14) slides into third after hitting a triple against the New York Yankees in the seventh inning at Tropicana Field. | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

There’s a real craft to stealing bases in Major League Baseball.

Speed helps, but it’s only part of the equation. The best base stealers read pitchers, pick their spots, and get elite jumps—that’s where games are won on the margins.

Last season, José Caballero led the majors with 49 stolen bases for the New York Yankees, while José Ramírez of the Cleveland Guardians and Chandler Simpson of the Tampa Bay Rays tied for second with 44.

2026 MLB Stolen Base Leader Implied Probabilities

Kalshi

Early market pricing at Kalshi points to Simpson as the front-runner. He’s jumped 11 percentage points since Opening Day and now sits at 37% implied probability. Elly De La Cruz of the Cincinnati Reds checks in at 19%, while Bobby Witt Jr. of the Kansas City Royals rounds out the top tier at 12%.

Through the first couple weeks of 2026, the leaderboard is already crowded. Ramírez, Jakob Marsee, and Witt are tied for the lead with eight steals. Oneil Cruz, Nasim Nuñez, and Simpson are right behind with seven. Brice Turang, Geraldo Perdomo, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Caballero all sit at six.

Here’s how the top three contenders stack up right now:

Chandler Simpson, Tampa Bay Rays (37%)

Simpson’s track record is built on pure speed and contact. Across four minor league seasons, he hit .327 over 1,065 at-bats with 207 runs, one home run, 77 RBIs, and 225 stolen bases—while drawing 113 walks against just 106 strikeouts. His 94 steals in 2023 and 104 in 2024 put him in elite territory, even if his average hit rate (1.155) was one of the lowest on record for this metric.

In the majors, he kept the ball in play with a 9.8% strikeout rate, though his walk rate dipped to 4.8%. His contact batting average (.329) trailed his minor league mark (.363), and his average hit rate remained light at 1.172. Still, he never hit below .277 in any month.

There’s no mystery with the power profile. Simpson posted an 84.3 mph exit velocity, 0.0% barrel rate, 0.5 launch angle, and a 17.2% hard-hit rate—he didn’t record a single barrel all year. But his 59.4% groundball rate plays directly into his speed, even if a 16.6% flyball rate limits any power upside.

Chandler Simpson has an AL-best .407 batting average this season

The Rays left fielder and leadoff hitter trails only Bobby Witt Jr. for the MLB lead with seven stolen bases. He's got a .429 on-base percentage and an .863 OPS pic.twitter.com/3Ydpi4IFwr

— Talkin' Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) April 12, 2026

This year, he’s off to a scorching start—hitting .407 over 16 games while converting seven of nine stolen base attempts. If he keeps getting on base at this clip, he’s going to be very hard to catch in this market.

Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds (19%)

Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz (44) throws to first for an out in the third inning between the Cincinnati Reds and the San Francisco Giants at Great American Ball in Cincinnati on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. | Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

De La Cruz remains one of the most dynamic players in the league, but a drop of 30 stolen bases last season cut into his overall value. He still finished as a top-15 hitter, though that was a step back from his top-five production in 2024.

His contact batting average (.371) stayed strong, even if it dipped from .400 the year prior. The encouraging sign was a reduced strikeout rate (25.9% down from 31.3%), paired with a steady 9.6% walk rate.

The underlying power metrics, however, moved in the wrong direction. His average hit rate fell to 1.669, driven by a 51.3% groundball rate and a lower 7.6 launch angle. His exit velocity (91.0), barrel rate (10.2%), and hard-hit rate (44.1%) all declined, keeping his flyball rate at 31.3% and pulling his HR/FB rate down to 15.7% (from 19.1% in 2024 and 24.5% in 2023).

He also had clear splits—struggling against lefties (.236/25/5/26/6 over 199 at-bats) and on the road (.243/49/12/40/17 over 325 at-bats). Before the All-Star break, he was rolling (.284/72/18/63/25 over 370 at-bats), but he cooled off significantly down the stretch (.236/30/4/23/12 over his final 259 at-bats).

In 2026, De La Cruz is hitting .284 with five home runs and has gone five-for-six on the basepaths. He’s still getting on base, but he’s not running quite as aggressively as he did earlier in his career—and that’s reflected in his current market price.

Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (12%)

Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (7) dives into third base during the fourth inning against the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium. | William Purnell-Imagn Images

Witt didn’t quite live up to his 2024 breakout, but even in a “down” year, he remained one of the top 10 offensive players in baseball. He led the American League in hits (184) for the second straight season and set a career high with 47 doubles, though his home run total dipped to 23.

His plate discipline took a step back, with an 18.2% strikeout rate and a 7.1% walk rate. His RBI rate also fell from an elite 21.7% to 16.5%, and his average hit rate (1.696) suggests a power ceiling closer to 25 homers than 35. His contact batting average dropped to .369 after sitting at .398 the year before.

That said, the raw contact metrics were still strong. Witt posted a 93.3 mph exit velocity and a 48.5% hard-hit rate—both career highs—along with a 15.2 launch angle and 12.5% barrel rate. His 42.8% flyball rate remained steady, though a 10.6% HR/FB rate kept his power output in check.

He crushed left-handed pitching (.328), but with limited power—just one home run and 12 RBIs. Over his final 72 games, he hit .308 with 53 runs, 12 home runs, 43 RBIs, and 17 stolen bases.

So far in 2026, Witt is hitting .270 without a home run—but that may actually work in his favor here. He’s already converted eight of nine stolen base attempts, and if the power doesn’t fully return, expect him to lean even more into his legs. With four straight seasons of 30+ steals, including a career-high 49 in 2023, Witt might be the best value on the board right now.

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Accuracy note: Market data referenced in this article reflects information as of Wednesday, April 15, 2026. Prediction market prices are live and shift continuously. Always verify current information directly at Kalshi.com and Polymarket.com before trading.

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