Keldon Johnson Overtakes Jaime Jaquez Jr. as NBA Sixth Man of the Year Favorite

Keldon Johnson has surged to the front of the NBA Sixth Man of the Year race, with prediction markets heavily backing the San Antonio Spurs standout as the runaway favorite.

San Antonio Spurs forward Keldon Johnson (3) reacts in the first half against the Houston Rockets at Frost Bank Center. | Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images

The San Antonio Spurs made a big splash at last year’s NBA Trade Deadline, dealing for All-Star point guard De’Aaron Fox. However, a midseason injury to Victor Wembanyama resulted in a wasted 2025 season. But in 2026, the Spurs have catapulted to the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference and are seemingly the only team that can challenge the Oklahoma City Thunder for the Western Conference championship. But it’s not just about Wemby, Fox, and last year’s Rookie of the Year, Stephon Castle.

Keldon Johnson has emerged as a key piece in San Antonio’s rotation. In 76 games this season, he is averaging 13.0 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 1.4 assists per game, while converting 52.8% of his shots from the field, 38.1% of his three pointers, and 79.3% of his attempts from the charity stripe. 

NBA Sixth Man of the Year Probabilities According to Kalshi

Kalshi

According to Kalshi’s prediction markets, Johnson is poised to win the Sixth Man of the Year award. He is currently trading at 73%, compared to Miami’s Jaime Jaquez at 21%, and Houston’s Reed Shephard at 3%.

Keldon Johnson, San Antonio Spurs (73%)

A few years ago, Johnson was a fixture in the San Antonio Spurs starting lineup, logging heavy minutes and putting up numbers—highlighted by a 22.0 points-per-game breakout not long ago. But as the roster evolved and expectations shifted, so did his role. By the 2023–24 season, Johnson found himself coming off the bench, with reduced usage on a team clearly gearing up for something bigger.

Fast forward to now, and San Antonio is no longer rebuilding. With Victor Wembanyama anchoring a team projected to finish with the second-best record in the league behind the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Spurs have officially entered contender status. Wembanyama is tracking toward a runner-up MVP finish while locking up Defensive Player of the Year, but Johnson has carved out his own lane as a high-impact reserve—and a legitimate Sixth Man of the Year candidate.

From a market perspective, that context matters. San Antonio’s rise contrasts sharply with the more fragile outlooks in places like Miami and Houston, where early playoff exits are very much on the table. That gap in team trajectory has shifted attention—and value—toward Johnson, making him one of the more intriguing names in the current trading landscape.

---

Who will represent the Western Conference in the 2026 NBA Finals?

Jaime Jaquez Jr., Miami Heat

Miami Heat forward Jaime Jaquez Jr. (11) reacts after scoring against the Philadelphia 76ers during the fourth quarter at Kaseya Center. | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Jaquez Jr. has quietly put together one of the steadiest bench campaigns in the league this season, averaging 15.0 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 4.7 assists per game. The three-point shot (just over 30%) hasn’t been a major weapon, but he’s finding other ways to impact winning, including solid defensive production with around one combined steal and block per night.

For the Miami Heat, his bounce-back year has been a big deal. After flashes as a rookie and a step back in Year 2, Jaquez has reasserted himself as a reliable, do-it-all piece in the rotation—exactly the kind of player this team leans on.

From a market standpoint, though, timing matters. Just over a week ago, Jaquez was sitting at the top of the Sixth Man of the Year board. Since then, Miami’s slide in the Eastern Conference standings has cooled that momentum, and the odds have followed. Now, he’s looking at an uphill climb, one that likely requires a huge closing stretch to swing the market back in his favor.

---

Accuracy note: Market data referenced in this article reflects information as of Thursday, April 2, 2026. Prediction market prices are live and shift continuously. Always verify current information directly at Kalshi.com and Polymarket.com before trading.

Trading is risky, always trade responsibly. If your activity is becoming a problem, support is available by calling 1-800-522-4700.