Puerto Rico vs. Italy Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers for World Baseball Classic Quarterfinal

Italy surprised a lot of people by going undefeated through pool play, including an 8-6 win over the United States that put the USA on the brink of elimination. On the other hand, Puerto Rico advancing out of its pool was expected.

Italy beat Brazil 8-0, Great Britain 7-4, Puerto Rico 8-6, and Mexico 9-1 to breeze through Pool B. Meanwhile, Puerto Rico beat Colombia 5-0, Panama 4-3 (in 10 innings), and Cuba 4-1 before falling 3-2 to Italy.

The winner of this game will advance to the semifinal and face off against the winner of the Venezuela vs. Japan matchup.

Here are the odds, probable pitchers, and predictions for Puerto Rico vs. Italy on Saturday afternoon.

Puerto Rico vs. Italy Odds & Run Line

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

Puerto Rico -120
Italy -105

Run Line

Puerto Rico -1.5 (+130)
Italy +1.5 (-165)

Total

8.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Puerto Rico vs. Italy Probable Pitchers

Puerto Rico: Seth Lugo (4 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K)
Italy: Sam Aldegheri (4.2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K)

Puerto Rico vs. Italy How to Watch

Date: Saturday, March 14
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Daikin Park – Houston, TX
How to Watch (TV): FS1

Puerto Rico vs. Italy Prediction and Pick

Italy is the surprise team of the tournament, and it’s barely an underdog against Puerto Rico as we enter the knockout stage.

Aldegheri was incredible in his World Baseball Classic debut, striking out 8 Brazilians of his 13 recorded outs. The southpaw has struggled in a few major-league appearances, though, allowing 26 runs (19 earned) in 26.2 innings across the last two seasons with the Angels.

Opposing the young lefthander will be a veteran in Lugo for Puerto Rico. The former relief pitcher has found new life as a starter, and he was solid in his start against Colombia. Last season, he went 8-67 with a 4.15 ERA in 26 starts for the Royals.

The advantage on the mound goes to Puerto Rico, but the Italians have been swinging hot bats in the World Baseball Classic. Italy’s 1.038 OPS is second to only the Dominican Republic, while Puerto Rico’s .582 OPS is the seventh-worst in the tournament. Puerto Rico only has 26 hits through four games while Italy has 40.

I’m a bit wary of backing Aldegheri, and the Italian bullpen isn’t great, but Italy is the only way I can look in this one. Puerto Rico’s bats have gone cold, and a home run or two for Italy could be the difference in this one.

Pick: Italy +1.5 (-165)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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