Rays vs. Guardians Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for ALCS Game 3

The Cleveland Guardians host the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 3 of the American League Championship Series on Wednesday. The game has been moved up to an afternoon start due to potential weather conditions later in the evening.

The Guardians came back for a 7-3 win in Game 1, but Tampa Bay quieted Cleveland with a 3-1 victory in Game 2.

It’s now effectively a best-of-five series after the Rays and Guardians split the first two games in Tampa Bay. Cleveland stole home-field advantage with its Game 1 win, but the Guardians were just 41-40 at home this season.

Here are the odds, probable pitchers, and predictions for Rays vs. Guardians Game 3 on Thursday, Oct. 15.

Rays vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Rays +1.5 (-207)
Guardians -1.5 (+169)

Moneyline

Rays +110
Guardians -133

Total

6.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

Rays vs. Guardians Probable Pitchers

Rays: Griffin Jax (8-10, 3.53 ERA)
Guardians: Gavin Williams (14-8, 3.76 ERA)

Griffin Jax will make his first postseason start after pitching two innings of one-run relief against the Yankees in the ALDS. He was 7-8 with a 3.14 ERA in 103.1 innings as a starter this year, and 1-2 with an 8.00 ERA (8 ER in 9 IP) as a reliever.

Gavin Williams has been great so far in the playoffs for the Guardians. He allowed two runs in five innings in Game 2 of the ALDS, then threw a scoreless inning to finish out Game 4. The right-hander then racked up 12 strikeouts in 5.1 one-hit innings in Game 5.

Rays vs. Guardians How to Watch

Date: Thursday, Oct. 15
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Progressive Field
How to Watch (TV): TBS
Rays record: 98-64 (4-1)
Guardians record: 85-77 (4-3)

Rays vs. Guardians Best MLB Prop Bets

Guardians Best MLB Prop Bet

Gavin Williams OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (+111)

Gavin Williams has 24 strikeouts in 11.2 innings this postseason, including 23 strikeouts in 10.2 innings in his two starts. Of course, all of that action came against the White Sox, but the Guardians starter is locked in as he makes his ALCS debut.

The Rays only struck out at a 19.1% rate against right-handed pitchers on the season, but that ballooned up to 27.6% in the last 30 days. Williams made one start against Tampa Bay this year, racking up nine strikeouts in 7.2 innings back in April.

After getting 11 and 12 strikeouts in his first two starts, I’ll happily take OVER 6.5 at plus odds on Thursday afternoon.

Rays vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

This should be another good pitcher’s duel in the ALCS.

Griffin Jax found new life as nearly a full-time starter this season after primarily pitching out of the bullpen with his previous teams. He was particularly strong in the first five innings, allowing 33 earned runs in 101.2 innings (2.92) in the first five innings this year.

Gavin Williams was a bit more hittable in the first five innings in the regular season (64 ER in 142.3 IP, 4.01 ERA), but has been great so far in the playoffs.

I also think the early start could benefit the starting pitchers, as the bats could take a bit to get going. That’s been the case in the first two games of the series, anyway, with two runs in the first five innings of Game 1 and three in Game 2.

Pick: 1st 5 Innings UNDER 3.5 (-115)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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