Rays vs. Guardians Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for ALCS Game 5

A massive Game 5 is set for Sunday evening in the American League Championship Series, as the Tampa Bay Rays evened this series at two games apiece in Game 4 on Saturday night against the Cleveland Guardians.

Tampa Bay’s 7-3 win sets up a huge Game 5 in Cleveland, as it’s the final home game for the Guardians in the series ahead of Game 6 (Monday) and a potential Game 7 (Tuesday) in Tampa Bay.

The Rays are set as road favorites in this matchup, though these teams have won every other game through the first four matchups in the ALCS.

Rays All-Star Drew Rasmussen (2.67 ERA in the regular season) is on the mound on Sunday against Cleveland’s Parker Messick (2.56 ERA in the regular season) after both starters were on the losing side of their outings earlier in this series.

Rasmussen threw six innings of two-run ball in a Game 1 loss for Tampa Bay while Messick allowed three unearned runs in a loss in Game 2. The total in this game is down at 6.5, a sign that oddsmakers expect a pitcher’s duel with the two aces on the mound.

Tampa Bay remains favored to win this series and the winner will take on the Milwaukee Brewers (who swept the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS) in the World Series.

So, who has the edge in Game 5?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, the pitching matchup, a player prop to bet and my game pick for a key swing game in the ALCS.

Rays vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Rays -1.5 (+135)
Guardians +1.5 (-163)

Moneyline

Rays: -136
Guardians: +113

Total

6.5 (Over -102/Under -118)

Rays vs. Guardians Probable Pitchers

Tampa Bay: Drew Rasmussen (1-0, 1.29 ERA in 2026 playoffs)
Cleveland: Parker Messick (0-2, 3.09 ERA) in 2026 playoffs)

Rays vs. Guardians How to Watch

Date: Sunday, Oct. 18
Time: 5:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Progressive Field
How to Watch (TV): TBS/truTV
Series: Tied 2-2

Rays vs. Guardians Best MLB Prop Bet

Guardians Best MLB Prop Bet

Parker Messick OVER 1.5 Walks Allowed (+101)

Both teams are going to have a relatively quick hook with their starting pitchers on Sunday to avoid letting this game get away, but I’m fading Messick when it comes to his walks prop.

During the regular season, the lefty ranked in the 81 percentile in walk percentage, but that has changed in his three playoff appearances. Messick has two, four and two walks, allowing eight free passes in just 11.2 innings of work.

The Rays were actually a bottom-10 team in walk rate in the regular season, so it makes sense that this prop is set at plus money on Sunday.

I expect Messick (five innings in his last start) to have a longer leash than most of the Guardians’ starters, especially since Cleveland and Tampa play four days in a row if this series reaches a Game 7.

Rays vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

These are the two best starters on each team, and they’ve allowed just two total earned runs in this series.

Rasmussen was lights out in the wild card round, allowing one hit across eight scoreless frames in a win over the New York Yankees, and he allowed just two runs in the Game 1 loss before the Tampa Bay bullpen imploded.

There is always a worry about bullpens in the playoffs, but these teams have solid marks in 2026. The Guardians have a 2.87 postseason ERA from their ‘pen while the Rays sit at 3.70.

Messick didn’t even allow an earned run in 3-1 loss in Game 2, and both he and Rasmussen ranked in the 85th percentile or better in expected ERA during the regular season.

I’ll trust these starters to lead the way in Game 5.

Pick: UNDER 6.5 (-118 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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