Rays vs. Yankees Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Tuesday, Sept. 22 (Game 1)

A massive four-game set begins between two American League playoff teams, as the AL East-leading Tampa Bay Rays take on the New York Yankees on Tuesday for Game 1 of a doubleheader.

The Rays have a six-game lead over the Yanks in the AL East, which means New York needs a sweep in this four-game set to have a chance to win the division. If not, the Yankees will be in the wild card and likely face the Boston Red Sox in the postseason.

Oddsmakers have set the Yankees as favorites in Game 1 of Tuesday’s doubleheader, as lefty Carlos Rodon (2.95 ERA) is set to take the mound against Tampa Bay’s Nick Martinez (2.94 ERA).

Both of these starters have higher expected ERAs than their actual ERAs, but the Rays have dominated in Martinez’s outings in 2026, going 22-7.

Can Tampa Bay lock up the division – and the best record in the American League – on Tuesday?

Here’s a look at the latest betting odds, a player prop to consider and my prediction for this divisional battle on Sept. 22.

Rays vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Rays +1.5 (-207)
Yankees -1.5 (+170)

Moneyline

Rays: +105
Yankees: -126

Total

7 (Over -109/Under -111)

Rays vs. Yankees Probable Pitchers

Tampa Bay: Nick Martinez (15-4, 2.94 ERA)
New York: Carlos Rodon (6-3, 2.95 ERA)

Rays vs. Yankees How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, Sept. 22
Time: 1:05 p.m. EST
Venue: Yankee Stadium
How to Watch (TV): ESPN Unlimited, Rays.TV, YES Network
Rays record: 95-60
Yankees record: 89-66

Rays vs. Yankees Best MLB Prop Bets

Rays Best MLB Prop Bet

Nick Martinez OVER 4.5 Hits Allowed (-103)

Martinez has led the Rays to two wins in his starts against New York this season, but he’s been knocked around a bit in those matchups.

The veteran right-hander gave up five hits in 4.2 innings of work in his first outing against the Yanks and nine hits in six frames in his second outing. Overall, Martinez has allowed five or more hits in 21 of his 29 starts in 2026.

As a result, the right-hander ranks in just the 16th percentile in expected batting average against (.265), and he’s struggled to generate swings and misses, sitting in the second percentile in whiff percentage.

New York is heating up on offense as of late, posting the fourth-best batting average in the league over the last 30 days despite ranking just 25th overall in batting average in 2026.

I’ll gladly take the Yanks to pick up five or more hits against Martinez, who has given up 159 hits in 2026.

Rays vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

Both of these teams have hit the UNDER in over 52 percent of their games this season, and Rodon and Martinez have defied their expected numbers for an entire campaign.

So, why expect a high-scoring game on Tuesday?

Rodon has an expected ERA of 3.98 this season, but the lefty has allowed three or fewer earned runs in every one of his 15 starts. On top of that, Rodon has a 2.40 ERA in six outings since Aug. 1, allowing two or fewer runs in each of those games.

Martinez has been equally as effective in 2026 despite his expected ERA sitting at 4.04. The right-hander has given up three or fewer runs in 25 of his 29 appearances.

These teams also feature elite bullpens, as the Yankees are No. 2 in the league bullpen ERA (3.14) while Tampa Bay is just outside the top 10 with an ERA of 4.01.

I’ll take a shot on both of these starters continuing their strong 2026 seasons and keeping Game 1 of this doubleheader under seven runs.

Pick: UNDER 7 (-111 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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