Reds vs. Brewers Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Thursday, July 2

Jacob Misiorowski and the Milwaukee Brewers have opened up a 5.5-game lead in the NL Central, and they’re looking to sweep the Cincinnati Reds on Thursday afternoon in the fourth game of this four-game set.

Cincy has scored just seven runs in this series, and it’s dropped to 39-46 in 2026 after a strong start to the season.

Misiorowski (1.45 ERA) has a real case to win the NL Cy Young, and he’ll go head-to-head with Cincy ace Chase Burns (2.36 ERA) this afternoon. Burns has led the Reds to a 12-4 mark in his 16 starts, but oddsmakers have set Milwaukee as the clear favorite in this series finale.

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction as Cincy looks to salvage something out of this matchup.

Reds vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Reds +1.5 (-143)
Brewers -1.5 (+119)

Moneyline

Reds: +167
Brewers: -204

Total

7 (Over -110/Under -110)

Reds vs. Brewers Probable Pitchers

Cincinnati: Chase Burns (9-1, 2.36 ERA)
Milwaukee: Jacob Misiorowski (9-3, 1.45 ERA)

Reds vs. Brewers How to Watch

Date: Thursday, July 2
Time: 2:10 p.m. EST
Venue: American Family Field
How to Watch (TV): Brewers.TV/Reds.TV
Reds record: 39-46
Brewers record: 53-31

Reds vs. Brewers Best MLB Prop Bets

Brewers Best MLB Prop Bet

Jacob Misiorowski UNDER 3.5 Hits Allowed (-106)

This season, Misiorowski has allowed three or fewer hits in nine of his 16 starts, including seven of his 10 starts since May 1.

Now, he takes on a Cincy offense that is one of the worst in MLB, ranking 29th in batting average, 30th in Weighted Runs Created Plus and 29th in hits.

Misiorowski has an expected batting average against of just .175 this season, which ranks in the 99th percentile amongst MLB pitchers. He should be able to shut down the Reds, who have scored just seven runs in this series against much lesser pitchers.

Reds vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick

Both of these starters have real Cy Young cases in the 2026 season, as Burns has a 2.36 ERA and Misiorowski has posted a 1.45 ERA.

The Reds actually have a better record with Burns on the mound (12-4) than the Brewers do with Misiorowski on the bump (10-6), but I’m eyeing a total in this matchup anyway.

In the first five innings of games, Burns has a sub.-2.00 ERA in every frame except the third inning, and he’s allowed two or fewer runs in 14 of his 16 starts overall. Meanwhile, Misiorowski has a 1.12 ERA or lower in each of the first five frames this season, also allowing two or fewer earned runs in 14 of his 16 starts.

I don’t expect either starter to waver on Thursday, and the Cincy offense has dropped to dead last in MLB in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) in 2026.

This should be a pitcher’s duel in the first few innings as Milwaukee looks to complete the sweep.

Pick: First 5 Innings UNDER 3.5 (-120 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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