Road to 272 Bets: NFL Week 2 Picks for Every Game

After a disastrous 2025 edition of the Road to 272 Bets, I was praying to Gamblor the gambling god that we'd get off to a hot start in 2026, but of course Gamblor had other plans.

We finished the week (INSERT RECORD). The good news is we have 17 more weeks to make up for it and I'm feeling great about the Week 2 board.

If you want to listen to the audio version of this week's picks, including some more in-depth analysis, check out the latest episode of Bacon Bets wherever you get your podcasts. You can also get a list of all my picks and where I bet them on Juice Reel. Finally, in case you missed last week's article, you can check it out to find the six rules I follow for this challenge.

It's time to find some momentum. 16 bets down, 256 bets to go. Let's have a week.

NFL Week 2 Best Bets for Every Game

Lions vs. Bills Prediction

As tempting as it is to back the Bills after how both teams looked in the opening week, I have to do my best not to overreact to a one-game sample size and stick to my belief that the Lions are one of the best teams in the NFL. Their metrics were elite last season, but injuries and poor variance led to them missing the playoffs.

There's no denying that Josh Allen is once again going to be an MVP candidate, but let's not overlook the fact that their defense allowed the Texans to rack up yards and points against them last week. Their defensive roster is completely different from a year ago, so I didn't know what to expect from them this season, but ranking 19th in opponent EPA per play and 22nd in opponent success rate isn't a good start.

I'll take the points with Detroit.

Pick: Lions +4.5 (-110) via BetMGM

Browns vs. Buccaneers Prediction

We only have a couple more weeks to bet against the Cleveland (Clowns) Browns with Deshaun Watson at quarterback, so we have to take advantage of our limited opportunities. With Kevin Stefanski and Myles Garrett gone, their defense is no longer a unit they can rely on. They ranked 30th and 32nd in opponent EPA per play and success rate amongst all teams in Week 1. Add in the worst starting quarterback in the NFL, not named Cooper Rush, and you have no path to success.

The Buccaneers looked very similar to how they did a year ago. An offense with weapons, an average defense, and a knack for committing mistakes in key moments. That's going to lead to them struggling to get past good teams, but luckily for them, the Browns aren't one. The Bucs should be able to win and cover on their home field.

Pick: Buccaneers -7.5 (-110)

Bengals vs. Texans Prediction

The Bengals' Week 1 win didn't convince me to buy in on them yet. They benefited from four turnovers, one of which was returned for a touchdown, but they can't rely on that every week. Their offense gained only 5.6 yards per play at home against a Tampa Bay defense that certainly isn't a top-10 unit in the NFL.

Now, they have to hit the road to take on a Texans' defense that matches up with them extremely well. Their one-two punch at cornerback may be one of the only tandems in the league that can slow down the likes of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

I expected the Houston offense to look much better this season, and they lived up to my expectations against the Bills.

I'm going to back the Texans to win and cover at home this Sunday.

Pick: Texans -2.5 (-120)

Saints vs. Ravens Prediction

The Ravens looked impressive in Week 1 against the Colts, but how much of that was them being back to their 2024 form (complementary), and how much of it was Indianapolis also returning to their 2024 form (derogatory)? One thing we can say for certain is that their already thin wide receiver room has taken a significant hit already. Rookie Ja'Kobi Lane is out for several weeks with a fractured wrist, and Zay Flowers is questionable for this game with a hamstring injury. That's going to hurt their ability to score this week.

The Saints put up a valiant fight against a really good Lions team in Week 1, and I think as the season goes on, head coach Kellen Moore is going to get more recognition for how good a job he has done in New Orleans.

Can the Saints win? Maybe not, but I'm going to back New Orleans getting 8.5 points.

Pick: Saints +8.5 (-109) via Caesars

Packers vs. Jets Prediction

There are certainly some legitimate questions surrounding the Green Bay Packers and their ability to hang on to second-half leads against good teams. Fortunately, I'm not buying that the New York Jets are one of those good teams after one solid win against a horrifically bad Titans team.

The positives for the Packers are that they finished the week fifth in defensive success rate and fifth in Net Yards per Play at +2.4. They outgained the Vikings 6.3 yards per play to 3.9 yards per play. Unfortunately, two turnovers and 12 penalties for 98 yards lost the game for them.

I have faith they can sharpen up in those areas and cruise past a Jets team I'm still convinced is bad.

Pick: Packers -3.5 (-110) via Caesars

Panthers vs. Falcons Prediction

As of writing this article on Monday, we don't know who's going to be starting at quarterback for the Falcons. Given the fact that Atlanta is a 1.5-point underdog, I can say confidently that the betting market is expecting Michael Penix Jr. or Tua Tagovailoa to return to action. Cooper Rush had an adjusted EPA per play in Week 1 of -0.493, by far the worst amongst all starting quarterbacks. If it's announced that he will start again in Week 2, I expect the odds to shift rapidly towards the Panthers.

That's why I'm going to bet on the Panthers at this point in the week. That way, if Penix or Tua does start, we'll likely have a bet at something close to the closing number. If Rush is announced as the starter, we'll get some fantastic closing line value as the spread moves towards the Panthers.

Carolina's defense looked horrific in Week 1, but let's consider the offense they had to face. When it comes to facing the Falcons, if they can contain Bijan Robinson, they can run away with a win.

I'll back the Panthers get their first win of the season.

Pick: Panthers -1.5 (-105)

Vikings vs. Bears Prediction

The Chicago Bears' Week 1 win might be one of the biggest overreaction spots in recent history. I'm going to sound like a huge statistics nerd here, so I apologize in advance. I understand that 59 points is 59 points, but at the end of the week, the Bears finished 15th in Net Yards per Play (0.2), largely due to a terrible defensive performance. Chicago was 22nd in opponent EPA per play and 20th in opponent success rate. If you think defense doesn't matter, just look at the Cowboys last season, who had a top-three offense in football and missed the playoffs entirely.

Meanwhile, Brian Flores and the Vikings' defense have caused him some fits throughout his career. The Bears' offense is going to meet its match in this game, and Williams will be pressured by the Vikings' pass rush throughout. If they can wreak havoc, the Bears' defense is going to allow Minnesota to stay in the game.

This matchup is prime for an unexpected Week 2 upset.

Pick: Vikings +210

Steelers vs. Patriots Prediction

Sometimes when a team wins a game, they're able to sneak by without criticism. It's still early in the week, but not enough people are talking about how atrocious the Steelers were offensively against a Falcons defense that was missing several pieces, including their top two pass rushers.

The Steelers' offense ranks 29th in EPA per play, 30th in success rate, and 21st in DVOA. That's bad news for them now that they have to play an actual good team in the New England Patriots, who are coming off a mini-BYE.

I'm not concerned with A.J. Brown being out. The Patriots won many games without him last season, and they can win games without him this season. I'm also not going to put too much into their Week 1 loss against the Super Bowl champions. This team is built to beat up on inferior opponents, which is exactly what the Steelers are.

Pick: Patriots -5 (-110) via BetMGM

Eagles vs. Titans Prediction

For the past two seasons, I've continuously tried to find reasons to defend the Tennessee Titans, and I don't know why. I'd like to officially announce that I'm done doing so. This team is a steaming pile of garbage, and Robert Saleh isn't going to be able to fix them.

In a week filled with some bad performances, the Titans were arguably the worst. They finished with a Net Yards per Play of -1.8 and are last in the league in DVOA. All of that came against the New York Jets.

I have some questions surrounding the Eagles this season, but any team with a pulse can beat the Titans by at least a touchdown.

Pick: Eagles -7 (-109) via Caesars

Raiders vs. Chargers Prediction

I had some concerns regarding the Chargers' defense this season after losing their defensive coordinator a year ago, Jesse Minter, who is now the head coach in Baltimore. Their Week 1 result proved the concern was for good reason. Not only did they lose to the Arizona Cardinals, but they also rank 27th in defensive DVOA, 23rd in opponent EPA per play, and 25th in defensive success rate.

With that being the case, I'm surprised to see the total in this game in the low 40s, at 43.5. The Raiders' offense is competent with Kirk Cousins at quarterback and Ashton Jeanty hitting his stride behind an improved offensive line.

I'm going to bet the over in this game.

Pick: OVER 43.5 (-109)

Jaguars vs. Broncos Prediction

Heading into this season I was extremely high on the Jaguars and extremely low on the Broncos compared to the betting market, and Week 1 did nothing but reinforce my opinions on both teams so I see no reason why I shouldn't bet the Jaguars to win this game outright on Sunday afternoon.

The Jaguars finished the week as the second-best team in the NFL according to DVOA, behind only the 49ers. Their defense was dominant and Trevor Lawrence looked extremely comfortable in his second year in Liam Coen's system.

Meanwhile, Bo Nix and the Broncos offense has some work to do if they want to compete in the AFC this season.

Pick: Jaguars +114 via FanDuel

Commanders vs. Cowboys Prediction

Shame on me for thinking the Cowboys' defense was better than it was a year ago. They let the New York Giants march up and down the field, and it wasn't just strong play by the Giants. Missed assignments, poor play calling, and a lack of fire were baffling to see in a Week 1 prime-time game against a division rival. They finished the week second-last in defensive success rate and dead last in opponent EPA per play.

The OVER was an automatic bet in Cowboys games last season, and I'm starting to think the same thing may be the case in 2026. We should bet the OVER before they're set in the 52.5 range for any game involving Dallas.

Pick: OVER 50 (-112)

Dolphins vs. 49ers Prediction

Entering this season, I was ready to blindly bet against the Dolphins every game through the first few weeks, but a 13-point spread is a bit too much for me to bite on in a Week 2 game against a 49ers team that was in Australia for a week before their game against the Rams. Sure, they have a mini-BYE week, but fully recovering from that trip isn't an easy feat.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins looked better than I expected against the Raiders. They lost, but they ranked 10th in Net Yards per Play (+0.9), and their defense was 12th in opponent EPA per play. Their numbers overall are far from good, but still significantly better than some other teams we saw in the opening week, and I don't think there's enough there to justify a 13-point spread.

Pick: Dolphins +13 (-110)

Seahawks vs. Cardinals Prediction

I'm confused by this line. One week, the Cardinals were the favorites to finish with the worst record in the NFL, and then the next week they're just 4-point underdogs to the defending Super Bowl champions who are fresh off a mini BYE? Sure, Drew Lock is likely to start in Week 2; the rest of this roster, specifically the defense, is good enough to win and cover in this game.

I need to see a lot more from the Cardinals before I start considering them anything other than a bottom-five team in the league. Let's not overreact to Darnold being out. Let's lay the points with Seattle.

Pick: Seahawks -4 (-113)

Colts vs. Chiefs Prediction

The Chiefs might be all the way back. Bringing back Eric Bieniemy as their offensive coordinator may have been exactly what they need. Patrick Mahomes looks healthy, and their one-two punch at running back with Kenneth Walker and Emmett Johnson got off to a fast start to their seasons.

Meanwhile, the Colts' defense look atrocious against the Ravens, and Daniel Jones' lack of mobility tells me he may still have a nagging injury that's keeping him from using his best weapon.

I think Kansas City runs away with the win in this game.

Pick: Chiefs -6.5 (-120) via DraftKings

Giants vs. Rams Prediction

The Los Angeles Rams had a disastrous Week 1, losing to the 49ers and then putting Myles Garrett on IR, but this game is now the ultimate overreact/underreact spot. If we put a ton of value into Week 1, taking the points with the Giants is a no-brainer bet. The Rams look bad against the 49ers, and the Giants looked great against the Cowboys.

With that being said, I have to stick with my preseason belief about both teams and not overreact to one game. The Rams are still an elite team, even with Garrett out of the lineup. They were victims of a bad travel strategy against the 49ers, but the bright side of that strategy is that I think they can re-acclimatize back in the United States better than San Francisco.

I need to see more from the Giants before I'm convinced they're an NFC contender. I wouldn't back the Rams if this spread increases any more, but at exactly seven points, I'll bet on them to put on a bounce-back performance.

Pick: Rams -7 (-112) via BetMGM

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