Road to 272 Bets: NFL Week 8 Picks for Every Game

The good news is that we have posted a fourth straight winning week of the Road to 272 Bets! The bad news is that we still have a bit of work to do to get back in the green, as the four strong weeks haven't been as good as the first three weeks were bad.

We move on to Week 8, hoping to keep the momentum going as we approach the halfway point of this challenge.

If you want to listen to the audio version of this week's picks, including some more in-depth analysis, check out the latest episode of Bacon Bets wherever you get your podcasts. You can also get a list of all my picks and where I bet them on Juice Reel. Finally, you can check it out to find the six rules I follow for this challenge.

Road to 272 Bets Record

Week 6: 8-5-1 (+2.83 units)
Season-to-date: 51-53-3 (-2.80 units)

NFL Week 8 Best Bets for Every Game

Panthers vs. Packers Prediction

I wrote about how I was out on the Panthers last week, and I proved to be right as they ended up on the wrong side of a blowout against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I'm still out on this Panthers team, as they seem like a significant regression candidate after a strong start to the season. Bryce Young, up until last week, had been playing leaps and bounds better than he had the previous three seasons, and I'm of the belief that it's more of a sign of an abnormally strong start against some bad defenses as opposed to a quarterback who improved by tenfold in a single offseason.

The Packers' defense ranks 12th in opponent EPA per play and 10th in opponent EPA per dropback, so with them being on their home field on a short week, I expect them to get to Young in this game.

I'll take the Packers to cover on Thursday Night Football.

Pick: Packers -3.5 (-110) via BetMGM

Ravens vs. Bills Prediction

Betting on this game hinges on whether or not Lamar Jackson is going to be able to suit up for the Ravens. Unfortunately, I place my bets early in the week, so I don't have the benefit of knowing whether or not the two-time MVP will be on the field on Sunday. The betting line indicates that he will, so I'm going to trust that, along with the reports that Jesse Minter is optimistic that Jackson will be ready to go.

When a team only has one loss on their schedule, and they have the best quarterback in football on their roster, a lot of their issues are overlooked. That's the case for the Bills, whose defense has been horrendous this season, ranking 30th in both opponent EPA per play and opponent success rate. They are the only defense in football that ranks in the bottom three in both of those metrics.

I hesitate to lay more than a field goal on any team with that bad of a defense, especially when that defense potentially has to face another MVP candidate at quarterback.

I'll take the points with Baltimore on Sunday.

Pick: Ravens +3.5 (-118) via BetMGM

Raiders vs. Jets Prediction

The Raiders fooled us into thinking they were a solid team in the first few weeks of the season, but make no mistake about it: they're bad. Their defense is 22nd in opponent EPA per play and 27th in opponent success rate, and they're the worst rushing offense in the league. That leaves Kirk Cousins and the passing game as their only real weapon, which makes them a tough team to back.

The Jets are the definition of an average team, which means they can hang with some good teams but also lose to bad teams, as we saw last week against the Dolphins. Their metrics rank around the middle of the pack on both sides of the ball, and Geno Smith has done a good job of not turning the ball over. That's enough for me to back them in a coin-flip game at home.

Pick: Jets -108 via Caesars

Cardinals vs. Cowboys Prediction

I don't see any other bet to place for this game other than the OVER. While 54.5 is a high number, I think it should be even higher. The two defenses in this game are 28th and 32nd in opponent EPA per play and 29th and 31st in opponent yards per play.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys' offense is one of the best in the NFL, and the Cardinals' is respectable in its own right, ranking 13th in success rate.

Let's sit back and root for points in what should be a chaotic game.

Pick: OVER 54.5 (-108) via DraftKings

Falcons vs. Buccaneers Prediction

The Falcons are the most mysterious team in the NFL. As they showed in Week 7 by handing the San Francisco 49ers their first loss of the season, the Falcons can beat any team in any given week, but they can also lose to any team.

I think the Buccaneers are better than they showed early in the season. Their defense is third in opponent EPA per play, behind only the Vikings and Seahawks. They can also run the ball effectively, ranking inside the top 10 in both rush EPA and rush success rate. That means if Baker Mayfield can start to get into peak form, Tampa Bay will all of a sudden be a dangerous team to face.

Tampa Bay may surprise some people in the coming weeks.

Pick: Buccaneers -1.5 (-112) via BetRivers

Vikings vs. Lions Prediction

This may end up being the most popular bet of the week. We bettors have been waiting for the right time to fade the undefeated Minnesota Vikings, and this seems like the perfect time to do it. The Detroit Lions are starting to get healthy defensively, and they are coming off a huge divisional win while boasting a top-three offense in football.

We know what the Vikings are at this point. Their offense continues to be a bottom-five unit in the league, but their defense has won them games against weak opponents. Their defense isn't going to be able to win this game by itself, forcing Kyler Murray and the rest of the offense to put up some points. I don't have faith in them doing that, so I'll lay the points with Detroit at home.

Pick: Lions -3.5 (+101) via Caesars

Browns vs. Steelers Prediction

This is the first rematch of the 2026 season, with these two teams already having faced each other back in Week 4. Not only did the Browns win that game by a score of 27-24, but they also outgained the Steelers in that game, 6.0 yards per play to 5.6 yards per play.

Believe it or not, there's not much to separate these two teams. They both have below-average offenses, with the Steelers having the advantage in EPA, but the Browns outranking them in success rate. They're both top 10 in EPA and success rate defensively.

In what should be a close, defensive battle, I'll take the team getting more than a field goal worth of points.

Pick: Browns +3.5 (-106) via FanDuel

Titans vs. Bengals Prediction

All aboard the Bengals train! This is a team you're going to want to invest in. Not only do they have the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL, but they're playing at a high level on both sides of the ball. The Bengals are sixth in EPA per play and fifth in success rate, and Joe Burrow is fourth in the NFL in completion percentage over expected. We've known that he's a slow starter every regular season, but if he's starting to hit his stride, then opposing defenses need to be put on notice.

Do I need to say anything that you don't already know about this Titans team? They're in the conversation for the worst team in the league. Their quarterback stinks, their offense can't move the ball, and their defense doesn't have what it takes to slow down Cincinnati.

I'm comfortable laying double-digits on the Bengals.

Pick: Bengals -10 (-113) via Caesars

Colts vs. Jaguars Prediction

The Indianapolis Colts are a bottom-three team in the NFL. They're 31st in net yards per play at -1.3, and they rank in the bottom third of the league in both EPA per play and opponent EPA per play. Their only weapon is Jonathan Taylor and their run game, meaning when they face a team that can stop the run, like the Vikings did last week, they're in serious trouble.

Now they face a Jaguars team that's fourth in both opponent rush EPA and opponent rush success rate. They also allow the fewest yards per carry at just 3.2 yards per rush. If that holds true in this game, the Colts will be weaponless in this AFC South duel.

Pick: Jaguars -7.5 (-110) via FanDuel

Chargers vs. Rams Prediction

There comes a point in time that we have to look at the Chargers not as a good team that simply had a nightmarish start to their season, but as a truly bad team amongst the worst the league has to offer. I've finally arrived at that point with this team. Their offense is last in EPA per play and 30th in success rate, while Justin Herbert ranks dead last amongst all NFL quarterbacks this season in adjusted EPA per play and 31st in completion percentage over expected.

Blame it on whatever you want: the coaching, the talent, the management, injuries, or even Justin Herbert losing his edge this offseason, but the fact of the matter remains: we have to treat this team like a bottom-five squad in the NFL.

The Rams still have room for improvement, but they're certainly good enough to win this game by seven points.

Pick: Rams -6.5 (-112) via DraftKings

Chiefs vs. Broncos Prediction

The Broncos' offensive issues and Bo Nix's play are going to haunt them against a good defense sooner rather than later. Their offense is 23rd in EPA per play and 29th in success rate, making them one of the worst offenses in the league through the first seven weeks. Now they take on a Chiefs team that has been impressive defensively, ranking fifth in both opponent EPA per play and opponent success rate.

I'd like to see the Chiefs' offense lean on the run game even more moving forward, as they rank in the top three in every offensive rushing metric. They can use that weapon against a Broncos defense that has struggled to stop the run compared to recent seasons. They're 27th in opponent rush EPA.

If the Chiefs can lean on their run game and continue to play good defense, they're going to get the road win and cover the short spread.

Pick: Chiefs -1.5 (-105) via TheScore Bet

Patriots vs. Dolphins Prediction

I was in on the Dolphins last week, but that was a one-week venture. I'll take my winnings and go home by betting against them a week later. Miami can cover as underdogs against fellow bad teams, but they don't have the skill or talent to hang with playoff-caliber teams, which the Patriots certainly are.

Drake Maye and the Patriots' passing offense have been better than people are giving them credit for. They rank fifth in the league in dropback EPA and second in dropback success rate. That's good enough to torch a bad Dolphins defense.

Pick: Patriots -7.5 (-105) via DraftKings

Eagles vs. Commanders Prediction

I'm going to hope that Saquon Barkley is healthy enough to play in this game, because if he is, the Eagles will have a path to cover the spread. The Commanders' run defense has been bad this season, ranking 31st in opponent rush success rate, meaning the Eagles should be able to run the ball against them.

I still think the Eagles have enough skill on offense to compete with a bad Commanders team, so I'm not ready to lay the points on Washington. I'll back the Eagles as underdogs for a second straight week.

Pick: Eagles +4.5 (-112) via DraftKings

Bears vs. Seahawks Prediction

I'm ready to believe in the Chicago Bears. Ben Johnson is clearly the real deal as head coach, and Caleb Williams has improved significantly since last season. Last season, he ranked 39th out of 45 starting quarterbacks in completion percentage over expected. This season, he ranks first at +9.0%.

The Bears' defense has also been better than people expected this season, ranking fourth in the NFL in opponent success rate.

I still have some concerns surrounding the Seattle offense. It did enough to beat the Chiefs last week, but their running game is still weak, and Sam Darnold hasn't been as efficient as he was a year ago.

I'll take the Bears as my upset pick of the week.

Pick: Bears +148 via FanDuel

Follow Iain on X and Instagram

Find Iain's bets, where he placed them, and how to tail them on Juice Reel.

Create a new FanDuel Sportsbook account, and you can get up to $350 in bonus bets. Register now and make a $5 wager each day for five days to claim your FanDuel promo code offer today.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Add us as a preferred source on Google