Road to the NBA Finals: NBA Playoff Predictions, Picks for Every Game on Monday

An exciting three-game NBA playoff slate is set for Monday night, and there are two teams that could end their first-round matchups:

Detroit Pistons @ Orlando Magic (ORL leads 2-1)
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Phoenix Suns (OKC leads 3-0)
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets (MIN leads 3-1)

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves are a win away from advancing, but both teams are dealing with major injuries. Jalen Williams (hamstring) is week-to-week for the Thunder after going down in Game 2, while the Wolves lost Donte DiVincenzo (torn Achilles) for the season and Anthony Edwards (knee hyperextension) for at least the rest of this series and likely longer.

So, things could get a little trickier on Monday night, especially with Denver and OKC favored by double digits.

I’m challenging myself to bet on every game of the playoffs this season, in this “Road to the NBA Finals” column. Here’s a quick reminder of the rules:

Bet on every game through the play-in tournament and playoffs
Bet can be a spread, total, moneyline, player prop or game prop
ENJOY POSTSEASON BASKETBALL!

On Monday, I’m eyeing a total and a pair of props as my favorite bets, as the Thunder and Timberwolves look to end their first-round matchups.

Cade Cunningham UNDER 9.5 Assists (-115)

Fading Cade?

I shared in this prop in today’s best NBA props for SI Betting, as Cunningham’s assist numbers have taken a small hit with the Pistons struggling offensively in this series:

Cade Cunningham is averaging over 17 potential assists per game in this series, yet the Magic have held him short of this number in two of his three games.

Cunningham has four, 11 and nine assists in his three games, and the Pistons simply haven’t played well on offense overall, ranking 14th in offensive rating and 12th in effective field goal percentage.

During the regular season, the Magic ranked eighth in the league in opponent assists per game, and there’s certainly less chances for Cade to clear this line with the Pistons scoring 105 or fewer points in each of their games in this series.

I wouldn’t be shocked if Cade needs to score more in Game 4, and he’s averaging 23 shots per game already in this series.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 31.5 Points (-116)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Best column – Peter’s Points – why SGA is worth a look with a chance to sweep the Suns on Monday:

SGA dominated Game 3 with Jalen Williams (hamstring) out of the lineup, scoring 42 points on 15-of-18 shooting from the field, missing just one shot in the game from two-point range.

He's now scored 37 and 42 points in the last two games in this series after dropping just 25 in Game 1. SGA also took 25 shots in Game 2 and 18 shots in Game 3, showing that he's going to have a huge role on that end (as he always does) with Williams out.

During the regular season, Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 31.1 points per game, and the Suns don't have many answers for him -- especially if Jordan Goodwin (questionable, calf) doesn't play in this matchup.

I think this line is pretty reasonable for the reigning league MVP, as he's averaging over 20 shots and 12 free throw attempts per game in this series.

Minnesota Timberwolves-Denver Nuggets UNDER 221.5 (-105)

Another play from today’s Peter’s Points, I’m fading both offenses in Denver with Anthony Edwards out of the lineup:

Anthony Edwards’ knee injury has opened the door for the Nuggets to make a comeback from a 3-1 deficit in the first round, but – for me – they’re a stay away as a 10.5-point favorites in Game 5.

Instead, I’m looking to the UNDER with the total set at 221.5.

These teams have combined for 221, 233, 209 and 208 points in four games in this series, and the Wolves are now down their top offensive player in Edwards and their top 3-point shooter in DiVincenzo. So, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Minnesota’s offense take a bit of a step back on Monday night – especially on the road.

Meanwhile, Denver went from the No. 1 offense in the NBA in the regular season to the No. 12 offense so far in the playoffs. Rudy Gobert has done a great job on Nikola Jokic, and injuries to Aaron Gordon (questionable for Game 5) and Peyton Watson have limited Denver’s ceiling on both ends of the floor.

The Nuggets have scored less than 100 points in back-to-back games, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they still struggle since the Wolves held them to just 42 second-half points after Edwards went down in Game 4.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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