Road to the NBA Finals: NBA Playoff Predictions, Picks Knicks vs. Spurs Game 5

The New York Knicks have a chance to close out the 2026 NBA Finals on Saturday night, as they hold a 3-1 series lead over Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs after stealing Game 4 at Madison Square Garden.

New York trailed by 29 points in the the third quarter and was outclassed for the first 30 minutes of action on Wednesday night, but a miracle comeback, led by OG Anunoby and Jalen Brunson helped the Knicks inch closer to their first title since 1973.

Not only did the Knicks complete the biggest comeback in NBA Finals history, but they are now -500 favorites to win the title – their highest mark of the 2025-26 season.

San Antonio is looking to extend the series at home in Game 5, and oddsmakers do have it favored despite the fact that it dropped Games 1 and 2 of this series on its home floor.

There’s a chance Saturday is the final day in the “Road to the NBA Finals” challenge, which saw yet another winner in Game 4. Here’s a reminder of the rules:

Bet on every game through the play-in tournament and playoffs
Bet can be a spread, total, moneyline, player prop or game prop
ENJOY POSTSEASON BASKETBALL!

Game 4 featured the wildest win of a bet in the “Road to the NBA Finals” challenge this postseason. I had the Spurs +2.5 in Game 4, and while they blew a 29-point lead to fall behind 3-1 in this series, they still covered the spread.

Pretty wild!

I’m sticking with a side again in Game 5, as I believe the Knicks are mispriced after coming back from the dead in Game 4, putting them just one win away from snapping a 53-year title drought.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

New York Knicks +5.5 (-112) vs. San Antonio Spurs

I’m not messing around in Game 5. I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why the Knicks are seriously undervalued on Saturday night:

Saying that there is a “team of destiny” in the NBA Finals is far from an actual reason to bet on the Knicks, but after Game 4, it’s hard not to think that.

New York has multiple 20-point comebacks in the playoffs, including the largest comeback in Finals history to steal Game 4.

But, the most impressive part is that the Knicks are also playing at an insanely high level, comebacks and all. They rank No. 1 in the playoffs in offensive, defensive and net rating, and they held San Antonio to just 30 second-half points in Game 4.

I expect the Spurs to come out fighting in Game 5, and they’ve gotten off to strong starts in every game in this series. However, I can’t bet on them to cover this 5.5-point spread.

First off, the 2026 NBA Finals have been extremely close with New York winning Game 1 by 10 points before Games 2 through 4 were decided by one, four and one point. This postseason, the Knicks have just three losses and all of them have come by four points or less.

So, the Spurs would have to do something that nobody has done this postseason to cover the spread in this game. With how well the Knicks have performed down the stretch – and how often the Spurs have made foolish mistakes – asking San Antonio to win by six or more is a tall task.

If bettors and fans didn’t know about the resilience of this Knicks team, there is no better example than how Brunson, Anunoby and Co. walked down the Spurs in Game 4.

I’m not going to say that the Knicks win another road game to take the Finals in five, but I do think they’ll keep this game close. The road team is 4-0 against the spread in this series, and the Knicks already have two outright wins on the road. Give me the points on Saturday night.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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