Road to the NBA Finals: NBA Playoff Predictions, Picks Spurs vs. Knicks Game 4

Ladies and gentlemen, we have a series!

Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs refused to go quietly in Game 3 of the NBA Finals, battling back from a seven-point halftime deficit to upset the New York Knicks and avoid a 3-0 deficit on Monday night.

San Antonio has a chance to even the series in Game 4 at Madison Square Garden, but the Knicks are still favored at home by 2.5 points. New York is also favored to win this series (-190 in the latest odds), though it didn’t have a strong offensive showing for a lot of the second half against the Spurs.

New York seemed to figure things out with a 42-point second quarter, but Jalen Brunson’s foul trouble and down games from Mikal Bridges (two points) and Karl-Anthony Towns (11 points), as well as 13 team turnovers, ultimately doomed the Knicks.

There’s a chance things will be knotted up at two games apiece, as the road team is 3-0 straight up and against the spread so far in the 2026 NBA Finals. I’m continuing my journey of betting on every playoff game in the “Road to the NBA Finals” challenge, which has some pretty simple rules:

Bet on every game through the play-in tournament and playoffs
Bet can be a spread, total, moneyline, player prop or game prop
ENJOY POSTSEASON BASKETBALL!

For the first time all series, I failed to hit my play in the “Road to the NBA Finals” challenge, in Game 3, as Karl-Anthony Towns struggled to get anything going on the offensive end.

Now, I’m targeting a side in Game 4, as the Spurs have a chance to completely flip this series back in their favor before things return to Frost Bank Center for Game 5 on Saturday night.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

San Antonio Spurs +2.5 (-115) vs. New York Knicks

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I’m taking San Antonio to cover in Game 4:

This series has seen the road team win all three games, and every game has been close in the final minutes.

The Knicks did win Game 1 by 10 points, but the other two games came down to the final possessions, which I believe sets up well for the Spurs getting 2.5 points on Wednesday night.

Like it or not, San Antonio has taken 17 more free throws than the Knicks in this series and got to the line 24 times in the second half to the Knicks eight. Since Wembanyama walls off so much of the paint for New York, it’s been harder for this offense to get easy baskets at the rim, and the Spurs did a solid job of making Brunson dribble the air of the ball – and into double teams – in Game 3.

I expect the Knicks to have an answer for some of this in Game 3, but Landry Shamet, Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges all no-showed on offense on Monday, which is a bit of a concerning sign for a Knicks team that can’t become too reliant on Brunson.

The Spurs’ defense was a top-three unit in the regular season and is the No. 2 unit in these playoffs, and it’s been able to play pretty physically with New York.

The Knicks have some awesome splits at home this season (30-10 in the regular season, 6-2 in the playoffs), but it wouldn’t shock me if this game came down to the final minutes once again. Having the 2.5-point cushion is extremely helpful, especially since there were chances for New York to swing Game 3 even after falling behind by eight with less than five minutes left.

I don’t have a great feel for who will win Game 4, but I do think there is value in getting 2.5 points, especially with the Spurs coming off their best game of the series.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and get $200 in bonus bets instantly when you make your first $5 bet.

Add us as a preferred source on Google